Global Elections

    Ontario Liberal Party Leadership Election Winner

    Lee Fairclough leads by 43 pts · 2 candidates at 5%+

    1. Lee Fairclough#171%
    2. Navdeep Bains#228%
    3. Stephanie Bowman#33%
    #4 Eric Lombardi1%#5 Dylan Marando1%
    Resolves
    Nov 21, 2026
    Volume
    $25.6K
    24h
    $70
    Liquidity
    $52.2K
    Candidates
    5
    kalshiPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US2 venues · 5 markets

    Who’s winning

    • Lee Fairclough71%
    • Navdeep Bains28%
    • Stephanie Bowman3%
    • Eric Lombardi1%
    • Dylan Marando1%
    Polymarket USPolymarket USCFTC-regulated

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    Signals

    1 signal
    1. Stephanie Bowman24h
      4¢ apart across venuesPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USkalshi

    Every candidate, every venue

    2 venues
    ChanceBest
    Lee Fairclough$9.8K vol71%▼ 1kalshi73¢75¢ after fees
    Navdeep Bains$10.6K vol28%▼ 2kalshi29¢31¢ after fees
    Stephanie Bowman$3.3K vol · 4¢ apart3%▼ 1kalshi7¢8¢ after fees
    Eric Lombardi$730 vol1%▼ 1kalshi5¢6¢ after fees
    Dylan Marando$1.2K vol1%▼ 2kalshi2¢3¢ after fees

    Yes pays $1 if it’s right. Chance is the venues’ consensus; green marks the cheapest venue after fees, and every price opens that venue’s market.

    Where venues disagree

    Yes price
    • Stephanie Bowman4¢buy kalshi
    • Navdeep Bains3¢buy kalshi
    • Lee Fairclough2¢buy kalshi
    • Polymarket (global)
    • Kalshi
    • Consensus

    Same candidate, different price: buy where it’s cheapest.

    Smart money

    Biggest trades

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    In the news

    How each venue settles it

    kalshiKalshi

    If Lee Fairclough wins the 2026 Ontario Liberal Party leadership election, then the market resolves to Yes.

    Full rules on Kalshi ↗
    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USPolymarket (global)

    The 2026 Ontario Liberal Party leadership election is currently scheduled to conclude on November 21, 2026, with voting held from November 9 to November 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next leader of the Ontario Liberal Party as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder leaders appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of t…

    Full rules on Polymarket (global) ↗

    About this market

    The 2026 Ontario Liberal Party leadership election is currently scheduled to conclude on November 21, 2026, with voting held from November 9 to November 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next leader of the Ontario Liberal Party as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder leaders appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Ontario Liberal Party.

    Category
    Politics
    Resolves
    Sat, November 21, 2026
    kalshiPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USCompared across 2 venues

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