Weather

    November 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

    >1.54ºC leads by 78 pts · 2 outcomes at 5%+

    1. >1.54ºC#188%
    2. 1.50–1.54ºC#210%
    3. 1.45–1.49ºC#35%
    #4 1.40–1.44ºC1%#5 1.35–1.39ºC1%+1 more
    Resolves
    Jan 1, 2027
    Volume
    $17.6K
    24h
    $2.9K
    Outcomes
    6
    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US1 venue · 6 markets

    Who’s winning

    • >1.54ºC88%
    • 1.50–1.54ºC10%
    • 1.45–1.49ºC5%
    • 1.40–1.44ºC1%
    • 1.35–1.39ºC1%
    Polymarket USPolymarket USCFTC-regulated

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    Signals

    3 signals
    1. 1.50–1.54ºC24h
      ▼ 10¢ in 24hPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US
    2. 1.45–1.49ºC24h
      ▼ 7¢ in 24hPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US
    3. >1.54ºC24h
      ▲ 3¢ in 24hPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US

    Every outcome, every venue

    1 venue
    ChanceBest
    >1.54ºC$2.1K vol88%▲ 3Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US92¢no fee
    1.50–1.54ºC$2.0K vol10%▼ 10Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US12¢no fee
    1.45–1.49ºC$3.4K vol5%▼ 7Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US8¢no fee
    1.40–1.44ºC$5.7K vol1%—Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US3¢no fee
    1.35–1.39ºC$1.3K vol1%▼ 1Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US1¢no fee
    <1.35ºC$3.0K vol1%▼ 1Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US1¢no fee

    Yes pays $1 if it’s right. Chance is the venues’ consensus; green marks the cheapest venue after fees, and every price opens that venue’s market.

    Smart money

    Biggest trades

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    In the news

    About this market

    Category
    Culture
    Resolves
    Fri, January 1, 2027
    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USCompared across 1 venue

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