Geopolitics

    Next Prime Minister of Latvia?

    Andris Kulbergs leads by 96 pts

    1. Andris Kulbergs#198%
    2. Alvis Hermanis#22%
    3. Ivars Ijabs#32%
    #4 Raivis Zeltīts2%#5 Jānis Citskovskis2%+7 more
    Resolves
    Jul 31, 2027
    Volume
    $39.9K
    24h
    $0
    Liquidity
    $31.4K
    Candidates
    12
    kalshiPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US2 venues · 12 markets

    Who’s winning

    • Andris Kulbergs98%
    • Alvis Hermanis2%
    • Ivars Ijabs2%
    • Raivis Zeltīts2%
    • Jānis Citskovskis2%
    Polymarket USPolymarket USCFTC-regulated

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    Signals

    Quiet market: no big moves or venue gaps in the last 24 hours.

    Every candidate, every venue

    2 venues
    ChanceBest
    Andris Kulbergs$11.0K vol98%▼ 1kalshi98¢99¢ after fees
    Alvis Hermanis$3.6K vol2%▼ 2kalshi4¢5¢ after fees
    Ivars Ijabs$4.6K vol2%▼ 2kalshi4¢5¢ after fees
    Raivis Zeltīts$2.6K vol2%▼ 2kalshi4¢5¢ after fees
    Jānis Citskovskis$3.8K vol2%▼ 2kalshi4¢5¢ after fees
    Jūlija Stepaņenko$5.0K vol2%▼ 2kalshi5¢6¢ after fees
    Viktors Valainis$2.4K vol1%▼ 1kalshi5¢6¢ after fees
    Arvils Ašeradens$532 vol1%▼ 1kalshi5¢6¢ after fees
    Andris Šuvajevs$620 vol1%▼ 1kalshi4¢5¢ after fees
    Ainārs Šlesers$1.1K vol1%▼ 1kalshi4¢5¢ after fees

    Yes pays $1 if it’s right. Chance is the venues’ consensus; green marks the cheapest venue after fees, and every price opens that venue’s market.

    Smart money

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    In the news

    How each venue settles it

    kalshiKalshi

    If Andris Kulbergs becomes Prime Minister of Latvia as a result of government formation following the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election and meets all constitutional requirements before Oct 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

    Full rules on Kalshi ↗
    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USPolymarket (global)

    Parliamentary elections to elect the Saeima of Latvia are scheduled to take place on October 3, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who assumes the office of Prime Minister of Latvia following the specified elections. To count for resolution, the Cabinet led by the individual must receive the confidence of the Saeima in a vote of confidence. Any interim, caretaker, or acting Prime Minister, or a P…

    Full rules on Polymarket (global) ↗

    About this market

    Parliamentary elections to elect the Saeima of Latvia are scheduled to take place on October 3, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who assumes the office of Prime Minister of Latvia following the specified elections. To count for resolution, the Cabinet led by the individual must receive the confidence of the Saeima in a vote of confidence. Any interim, caretaker, or acting Prime Minister, or a Prime Minister whose Cabinet has not received the confidence of the Saeima will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Saeima and the Government of Latvia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

    Category
    Politics
    Resolves
    Sat, July 31, 2027
    kalshiPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USCompared across 2 venues

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