Science & Tech

    Next Gemini Carbon (4.1+) released on...?

    No release by December 31 leads by 63 pts · 3 outcomes at 5%+

    1. No release by December 31#169%
    2. November 24#26%
    3. November 14#35%
    #4 November 224%#5 November 233%+43 more
    Resolves
    Dec 31, 2026
    Volume
    $16.7K
    24h
    $16.7K
    Outcomes
    48
    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US1 venue · 49 markets

    Who’s winning

    • No release by December 3169%
    • November 246%
    • November 145%
    • November 224%
    • November 233%
    Polymarket USPolymarket USCFTC-regulated

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    Signals

    Quiet market: no big moves or venue gaps in the last 24 hours.

    Every outcome, every venue

    1 venue
    ChanceBest
    No release by December 31$1.4K vol69%—Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US69¢70¢ after fees
    November 24$336 vol6%—Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US7¢7¢ after fees
    November 14$408 vol5%—Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US10¢11¢ after fees
    November 22$303 vol4%—Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US7¢7¢ after fees
    November 23$328 vol3%—Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US5¢5¢ after fees
    December 11$303 vol3%—Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US5¢5¢ after fees
    November 20$293 vol3%—Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US5¢5¢ after fees
    December 15$299 vol2%—Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US4¢4¢ after fees
    November 15$275 vol2%—Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US4¢4¢ after fees
    December 7$262 vol2%—Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US3¢3¢ after fees

    Yes pays $1 if it’s right. Chance is the venues’ consensus; green marks the cheapest venue after fees, and every price opens that venue’s market.

    Smart money

    Biggest trades

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    In the news

    About this market

    Category
    Culture
    Resolves
    Thu, December 31, 2026
    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USCompared across 1 venue

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