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    8s

    Iran leader end of 2026?

    Resolves Dec 31, 2026
    Total Volume

    $12.4M

    +$37.2K (24h)

    Active Markets

    30

    Across 1 platforms

    Frontrunner

    71¢

    Mojtaba Khamenei

    Biggest Mover 24h

    -2¢

    Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf

    Arb Opportunities

    0

    None detected

    All Markets

    30 markets · Showing 8
    #
    1
    Mojtaba Khamenei
    		71¢71¢
    $2.4M+$24.1K 24h
    		——
    2
    Reza Pahlavi📈 Trending
    		6¢6¢
    $245.9K+$3.9K 24h
    		——
    3
    No Head of State
    		3¢3¢
    $686.4K+$222 24h
    		——
    4
    Abbas Araghchi
    		3¢3¢
    $406.3K+$390 24h
    		-1¢—
    5
    Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf
    		2¢2¢
    $374.0K+$668 24h
    		-2¢—
    6
    Hassan Khomeini
    		2¢2¢
    $1.0M
    		——
    7
    Hassan Rouhani
    		1¢1¢
    $499.1K
    		——
    8
    Alireza Arafi
    		1¢1¢
    $1.5M+$719 24h
    		——

    Implied Probability

    Consensus across platforms
    1Mojtaba Khamenei
    71%
    71¢—
    2Reza Pahlavi
    6¢—
    3No Head of State
    3¢—
    4Abbas Araghchi
    3¢-1¢
    5Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf
    2¢-2¢
    6Hassan Khomeini
    2¢—
    7Hassan Rouhani
    1¢—
    8Alireza Arafi
    1¢—
    9Sadegh Larijani
    1¢—
    10Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
    1¢—
    11Masoud Pezeshkian
    1¢—
    12Maryam Rajavi
    1¢—
    13Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani
    1¢—
    14Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel
    1¢—
    15Massoud Rajavi
    0¢—
    16Navid Shomali
    0¢—
    17Mohammad Khatami
    0¢—
    18Ali Asghar Hejazi
    0¢—
    19Ahmad Vahidi
    0¢—
    20Seyed Hossein Mousavian
    0¢—
    21Saeed Jalili
    0¢—
    22Mostafa Pourmohammadi
    0¢—
    23Hassan Shariatmadari
    0¢—
    24Reza Pirzadeh
    0¢—
    25Muhammad Mirbaqiri
    0¢—
    26Sadegh Mahsouli
    0¢—
    27Nasir Hosseini
    0¢—
    28Mohsen Araki
    0¢—
    29Ali Motahari
    0¢—
    30Mustafa Hijri
    0¢—

    Price History

    Mojtaba KhameneiReza Pahlavi
    May 26 12:00May 27 15:00May 28 18:00May 29 22:00May 31 01:00Jun 1 03:00Jun 2 08:290.0%20.0%40.0%79.0%

    Related reading

    External
    Politics

    Ali Khamenei assassination impacts Iran leadership change markets

    1 minEstefano Gomez
    Politics

    Iran names Mojtaba Khamenei as new supreme leader after father’s killing | US-Israel war on Iran News | Al Jazeera

    1 minAl Jazeera Staff
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    Khamenei's Death A Major Blow But Collapse Of Iran's Clerical Establishment Not Guaranteed

    1 minUnknown
    Politics

    Iran war: Khamenei had planned for transition of power - The Times of India

    1 minNYT News Service / Mar 02, 2026, 07:51 IST
    Politics

    Analysis-Khamenei killing shatters Iran's order, triggers high-stakes succession race - Yahoo News UK

    1 minUnknown
    Politics

    With Khamenei dead, how will the Islamic Republic choose Iran's next supreme leader? - Yahoo News UK

    1 minUnknown
    Politics

    Who will replace Ayatollah Khamenei — a moderate or an ‘Iranian Putin’?

    1 minCatherine Philp, World Affairs Editor
    Politics

    Khamenei's death met with public mourning, quiet celebrations as regime's opponents wait for an opening

    1 minUnknown

    Event Info

    Resolution Date

    ~Dec 31, 2026

    ~212 days remaining
    Category
    Politics
    Markets
    30
    Platforms
    1
    Total Volume
    $12.4M

    Whale Activity

    Whale

    sold $26K Yes on Mojtaba Khamenei

    polymarket · 15 days ago

    Whale

    bought $26K Yes on Mojtaba Khamenei

    polymarket · 15 days ago

    Whale

    sold $25K Yes on Mojtaba Khamenei

    polymarket · 15 days ago

    Whale

    sold $14K No on Mojtaba Khamenei

    polymarket · 18 days ago

    View all whale activity →

    Timeline

    • Price MoveJun 2, 8:00 AM

      Price move: Yes price moved down by 9.5% in 24h

      Hassan Khomeini · Polymarket

    • Price MoveJun 2, 8:00 AM

      Price move: Yes price moved up by 25.0% in 24h

      Masoud Pezeshkian · Polymarket

    • Price MoveJun 2, 8:00 AM

      Price move: Yes price moved up by 10.0% in 24h

      Mahmoud Ahmadinejad · Polymarket

    • Price MoveJun 2, 8:00 AM

      Price move: Yes price moved up by 40.0% in 24h

      Sadegh Larijani · Polymarket

    • Price MoveJun 2, 8:00 AM

      Price move: Yes price moved down by 21.6% in 24h

      Abbas Araghchi · Polymarket