TRADING OPEN

    How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in October?

    This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between October 2, 2026 and October 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for the last business day of October 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the last business day of October 2026 by November 13, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

    Resolves Oct 31, 2026
    Total Volume

    $29.4K

    +$1.2K (24h)

    Active Markets

    19

    Across 2 platforms

    Frontrunner

    59¢

    4.88% or below

    Biggest Mover 24h

    -38¢

    4.85% or below

    Arb Opportunities

    0

    None detected

    All Markets

    19 open
    #
    159¢55¢61¢
    $1.4K+$183 24h
    -12¢—
    2
    4.86% or below📈 Trending
    58¢58¢—
    $87
    -6¢—
    3
    4.79% or below📈 Trending
    56¢56¢—
    $406
    +14¢—
    4
    —
    Below 4.86%📈 Trending
    53¢—53¢
    $969+$122 24h
    -6¢—
    547¢47¢—
    $300
    -17¢—
    6
    4.85% or below📈 Trending
    43¢43¢—
    $196+$36 24h
    -38¢—
    740¢40¢—
    $196+$135 24h
    -19¢—
    837¢37¢—
    $0
    -18¢—
    936¢—36¢
    $2.6K+$31 24h
    -11¢—
    10
    4.82% or below📈 Trending
    34¢34¢—
    $716
    -18¢—
    1132¢32¢—
    $69
    -17¢—
    1230¢30¢—
    $0
    -17¢—
    13
    —
    Below 4.80%📈 Trending
    22¢—22¢
    $1.7K+$252 24h
    -16¢—
    1422¢22¢—
    $2.9K
    -17¢—
    1521¢21¢—
    $300
    -17¢—
    1620¢20¢—
    $1.2K
    -17¢—
    1717¢—17¢
    $2.0K+$61 24h
    -10¢—
    1813¢—13¢
    $4.0K+$31 24h
    -5¢—
    198¢—8¢
    $681+$5 24h
    -12¢—

    Implied Probability

    Consensus across platforms
    14.88% or below
    59%
    59¢-12¢

    Event Info

    Resolution Date

    ~Oct 31, 2026

    ~11 days remaining
    Category
    Economics
    Markets
    31
    Platforms
    2
    Total Volume
    $29.4K

    Whale Activity

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