Geopolitics

    French Presidential Election First Round: # of Candidates on Ballot?

    At least 10 leads by 26 pts · 10 candidates at 5%+

    1. At least 10#188%
    2. At least 12#262%
    3. At least 13#342%
    #4 At least 1430%#5 1219%+6 more
    Resolves
    Jul 17, 2027
    Volume
    $2.2K
    24h
    $361
    Liquidity
    $11.7K
    Candidates
    11
    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USkalshi2 venues · 11 markets

    Who’s winning

    • At least 1088%
    • At least 1262%
    • At least 1342%
    • At least 1430%
    • 1219%
    Polymarket USPolymarket USCFTC-regulated

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    Signals

    4 signals
    1. 1124h
      ▼ 12¢ in 24hPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US
    2. 1024h
      ▼ 7¢ in 24hPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US
    3. At least 1224h
      ▼ 5¢ in 24hkalshi
    4. At least 1324h
      6¢ apart across venuesPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USkalshi

    Every candidate, every venue

    2 venues
    ChanceBest
    At least 10$0 vol88%▼ 3kalshi89¢90¢ after fees
    At least 12$0 vol62%▼ 5kalshi63¢65¢ after fees
    At least 13$759 vol · 6¢ apart42%▼ 2kalshi51¢53¢ after fees
    At least 14$0 vol30%▼ 5kalshi31¢33¢ after fees
    12$209 vol19%▼ 2Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US22¢23¢ after fees
    10$131 vol14%▼ 7Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US22¢23¢ after fees
    11$61 vol13%▼ 12Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US21¢22¢ after fees
    8$229 vol12%▼ 4Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US15¢16¢ after fees
    At least 16$0 vol10%▼ 5kalshi11¢12¢ after fees
    7$365 vol6%▼ 2Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US9¢9¢ after fees

    Yes pays $1 if it’s right. Chance is the venues’ consensus; green marks the cheapest venue after fees, and every price opens that venue’s market.

    Where venues disagree

    Yes price
    • Polymarket (global)
    • Kalshi
    • Consensus

    Same candidate, different price: buy where it’s cheapest.

    Smart money

    Biggest trades

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    In the news

    How each venue settles it

    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USPolymarket (global)

    The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election. This market will resolve according to the number of candidates included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential…

    Full rules on Polymarket (global) ↗
    kalshiKalshi

    If the number of candidates on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election is at least 13 by Apr 17, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

    Full rules on Kalshi ↗

    About this market

    The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election. This market will resolve according to the number of candidates included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on the number of candidates who actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "6 or fewer". Subsequent withdrawals, deaths, or disqualifications of candidates after the publication of the official candidate list will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

    Category
    Politics
    Resolves
    Sat, July 17, 2027
    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USkalshiCompared across 2 venues

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