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    France declares state of emergency by...?

    This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a state of emergency (état d'urgence) in France enters into effect at any point between this market's creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a "state of emergency" (état d'urgence) as defined by Law No. 55-385 of April 3, 1955 (Loi n° 55-385 du 3 avril 1955 relative à l'état d'urgence). Only declarations explicitly constituting a state of emergency under Law No. 55-385 will count. A declaration covering any part of the territory of the French Republic, including overseas departments, regions, and collectivities, will qualify. A declaration of a public health state of emergency (état d'urgence sanitaire) under the Public Health Code, a state of siege (état de siège) under Article 36 of the French Constitution, the use of exceptional powers under Article 16 of the French Constitution, the "Urgence attentat" level of the Vigipirate plan, a natural disaster declaration (état de catastrophe naturelle), or prefectoral orders issued outside of Law No. 55-385 will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Journal Officiel de la République française (legifrance.gouv.fr); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

    Resolves Jan 1, 2027
    Total Volume

    $240.5K

    +$36.9K (24h)

    Active Markets

    3

    Across 2 platforms

    Frontrunner

    15¢

    Before Jan 1, 2027

    Biggest Mover 24h

    -1¢

    October 21

    Arb Opportunities

    0

    None detected

    All Markets

    3 markets
    #
    115¢14¢23¢
    $67.7K+$8.5K 24h
    —
    8¢
    28¢7¢12¢
    $128.0K+$21.5K 24h
    —
    3¢
    30¢0¢—
    $44.8K+$6.9K 24h
    -1¢—

    Implied Probability

    Consensus across platforms
    1Before Jan 1, 2027
    15%
    15¢—
    2Before Nov 1, 2026
    8¢—

    Event Info

    Resolution Date

    ~Jan 1, 2027

    ~72 days remaining
    Category
    Politics
    Markets
    3
    Platforms
    2
    Total Volume
    $240.5K

    Whale Activity

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