CA-45 House Election Margin of Victory
Democrat 20-25% leads by 69 pts
Democrat 20-25%#1Democrat 20-25%74%▼ 15- Democrat 10-15%#2Democrat 10-15%5%
- Democrat 0-5%#3Democrat 0-5%3%▼ 82
- Resolves
- Jan 14, 2027
- Volume
- $523
- 24h
- $250
- Liquidity
- $965
- Candidates
- 7
2 venues · 9 marketsWho’s winning
Top 5, each at its busiest venue- Democrat 20-25%74%
- Democrat 10-15%5%
- Democrat 0-5%3%
- Democrat 15-20%3%
- Democrat 25%+3%
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Signals
4 signals- Democrat 0-5%24h▼ 82¢ in 24h
- Republican 5%+24h▼ 81¢ in 24h
- Republican 0-5%24h▼ 65¢ in 24h
- Democrat 0-5%24h4¢ apart across venues
Every candidate, every venue
2 venues
Yes pays $1 if it’s right. Chance is the venues’ consensus; green marks the cheapest venue after fees, and every price opens that venue’s market.
Where venues disagree
Yes price- Democrat 0-5%4¢buy
- Polymarket (global)
- Polymarket US
- Consensus
Same candidate, different price: buy where it’s cheapest.
Smart money
Biggest tradesLoading trades…
In the news
How each venue settles it
Polymarket (global)
The 2026 CA-45 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate…
Full rules on Polymarket (global) ↗About this market
The 2026 CA-45 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-45 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Category
- Politics
- Resolves
- Thu, January 14, 2027
Compared across 2 venues