Senate Unanimously Bans Senators From Prediction Markets — And a New Bill Would Go Further

On April 30, 2026, the U.S. Senate did something it rarely does with anything: act unanimously.

In a voice vote that passed without a single objection, the chamber changed its own rules to ban senators and their staffers from trading on prediction markets — effective immediately. The resolution, Senate Resolution 708, was sponsored by Ohio Republican Sen. Bernie Moreno and amended by California Democrat Sen. Alex Padilla to explicitly include Senate staff. It went into effect the same afternoon it passed.

"United States Senators have no business engaging in speculative activities like prediction markets while collecting a taxpayer-funded paycheck, period," Moreno said on the Senate floor.

Hours later, Senators Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) and Dave McCormick (R-PA) introduced the Prediction Market Act of 2026 — a comprehensive bipartisan bill that would extend similar trading restrictions to the president, the vice president, and senior executive branch officials, while also establishing the first broad consumer protection framework for the prediction market industry.

Both actions landed on the same day, from the same institution, with support from both parties. Together, they represent the most significant Congressional action on prediction markets since the platforms emerged as a national political issue in early 2026.

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What the Senate Rule Actually Does

Senate Resolution 708 is a rule change, not a law. It amends the standing rules of the Senate, adding a prohibition on senators, officers, and employees from entering into "an agreement, contract, or transaction" based on the "occurrence, nonoccurrence, or extent of occurrence" of a specific future event — the precise structure of a prediction market contract.

The resolution applies to senators and all Senate staff. Sen. Padilla's amendment was added after early debate raised concerns that a broader prohibition could inadvertently sweep in ordinary insurance products; the amendment clarified the scope without affecting the core prediction market ban.

Because the resolution is a Senate rule change rather than legislation, it did not require House passage or a presidential signature. It went into effect immediately.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer called it "a no-brainer" and urged swift action from the House and the White House: "Speaker Johnson should immediately do the same thing in the House and prohibit House members from playing around in prediction markets."

Sen. Todd Young (R-Indiana), who has his own bipartisan legislation on insider trading in prediction markets, called the resolution "a good first step" and pressed for more: "At a minimum, we should pass my bill with Sen. Slotkin to prohibit all federally elected officials and government employees from using insider information to bet on a prediction market contract."

Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa) announced on X that she would introduce a parallel resolution in the House.

The resolution also includes a "sense of the Senate" provision encouraging the House, the executive branch, and the judicial branch to adopt similar restrictions.

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The Backdrop: What Got Congress Here

The unanimous Senate vote did not come from nowhere. It was the culmination of months of building pressure.

The immediate catalyst was the criminal case of U.S. Army Master Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke, charged by both the Department of Justice and the CFTC with using classified military information about the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro to place bets on Polymarket — allegedly earning more than $400,000. He was arraigned two days before the Senate vote and has pleaded not guilty.

That case was the most concrete, but it sat alongside broader documented patterns of well-timed betting before major U.S. military and policy announcements. The New York Times reported that at least 16 accounts made more than $100,000 after correctly predicting the February Iran strike — a joint U.S.-Israeli operation — in the hours before the public announcement. Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-Michigan), a former CIA analyst, called potential insider trading on prediction markets "an operational risk."

Kalshi had also announced just two weeks earlier that it had fined and suspended three political candidates for trading on their own elections: Democratic candidate Matt Klein of Minnesota, Republican candidate Ezekiel Enriquez of Texas, and Senate candidate Mark Moran of Virginia.

Sen. Thom Tillis (R-North Carolina), who noted he had just lifted his own hold on Kevin Warsh's Federal Reserve nomination — a decision that was itself the subject of active prediction market trading — expressed the underlying concern plainly: "There's not a phone here that's not a casino these days."

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How Platforms Responded

Both leading platforms publicly welcomed the Senate rule.

Polymarket posted on X: "We're in full support of this. Our Rulebook & Terms of Service already prohibit such conduct, but codifying this into law is a step forward for the industry. Happy to help move this forward however we can."

Kalshi co-founder and CEO Tarek Mansour also celebrated: "Kalshi already proactively blocks members of Congress and enforces against insider trading. This is a great step to increase trust in our markets by making it an industry standard. Now, let's pass this in the House!"

The platforms' support reflects a consistent industry strategy: embrace insider trading restrictions as a legitimacy marker while opposing broader categorical bans or market-type restrictions. A rule that bars elected officials from trading does not threaten platform revenues. A rule that bans entire contract categories — war, death, sports — would.

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The Prediction Market Act of 2026: Going Further

The Moreno resolution deals only with the Senate. The Prediction Market Act of 2026, introduced by Gillibrand and McCormick hours later, is a different kind of document: a comprehensive federal bill that would establish new rules for the entire industry.

Sen. McCormick, a Pennsylvania Republican, framed it as pro-market: "Prediction markets are already changing how Americans understand and manage risk. This legislation gives these markets the clear rules they need to grow responsibly, protects everyday investors who are participating in them, and ensures the United States remains the global leader in financial innovation."

Key provisions of the bill include:

Trading prohibition for elected and senior officials. Members of Congress, the president, the vice president, and senior executive branch officials would be banned from trading on prediction markets. The restriction would extend to the executive branch — a scope the Moreno resolution could not reach.

CFTC insider trading standards. The bill directs the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to prohibit trading on material nonpublic information and to define enforceable insider trading standards tailored specifically to prediction markets.

Customer fund protection. Firms must segregate customer funds and are prohibited from commingling — the same baseline protections applied to other CFTC-regulated derivatives exchanges.

Consumer safeguards. The bill requires self-exclusion programs and mandatory age verification across prediction market platforms.

Anti-money laundering. Platforms must comply with Bank Secrecy Act-level requirements, including customer due diligence, transaction monitoring, and suspicious activity reporting.

New CFTC consumer offices. The bill would create two new structures within the CFTC: an Office of the Retail Advocate to champion everyday investors and assist with disputes, and an Advisory Council on Consumer Protection bringing together regulators, law enforcement, consumer advocates, and market participants.

Case-by-case authority on war and violence contracts. The bill would empower the CFTC to ban prediction market contracts on war, violence, terrorism, and assassination on a case-by-case basis when found contrary to the public interest — a more targeted approach than the categorical ban proposed in Sen. Schiff's standalone DEATH BETS Act.

State consumer protection preserved. The bill explicitly preserves state authority to enforce consumer protection laws — a deliberate counterweight to the CFTC's ongoing litigation strategy of asserting exclusive federal jurisdiction over prediction market platforms.

Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour endorsed the legislation directly to Semafor: "While we don't agree on everything in this bill, we strongly support it. It presents a comprehensive and thoughtful approach to addressing genuine concerns raised by members on both sides of the aisle around customer protection and market integrity."

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What This Means for Traders on Kalshi and Polymarket

For everyday users trading on prediction market platforms, neither the Senate resolution nor the Gillibrand-McCormick bill changes anything about how the platforms currently operate.

No market access change. The Senate rule bars senators and staff from trading — it does not restrict public access to Kalshi, Polymarket US (operated by QCX LLC), or any other prediction market platform. The Prediction Market Act, if enacted, would similarly restrict officials rather than markets.

US access remains the same. Kalshi is a CFTC-licensed Designated Contract Market (DCM) and Derivatives Clearing Organization (DCO) accessible to eligible US users in most states, subject to ongoing state litigation. Polymarket's US platform, operated by QCX LLC, is a CFTC-licensed exchange currently offering sports markets for US users.

⚠️ Note on Polymarket: QCX LLC (d/b/a Polymarket US) is the CFTC-licensed entity offering sports markets to US users. Global polymarket.com offers politics, economics, and cultural markets but is not accessible to US users under the current regulatory structure.

New consumer protections on the horizon. If the Prediction Market Act passes, platforms would face new requirements: self-exclusion programs, age verification, fund segregation, and expanded anti-money laundering compliance. These would benefit retail traders — but would also impose compliance costs on platforms.

The CFTC stays the primary regulator. Both actions affirm, rather than challenge, the CFTC's jurisdiction over prediction markets. The Gillibrand-McCormick bill explicitly does not strip federal authority — it adds to it while preserving state consumer protection alongside.

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The Legislative Landscape: What Comes Next

The Senate's unanimous self-ban and the Prediction Market Act represent two different legislative tracks that are now moving simultaneously.

Senate Resolution 708 is already law — specifically, the law of the Senate. It took effect April 30. Violations can in theory result in penalties from the full Senate, including censure, though such enforcement actions are rare in practice.

The Prediction Market Act must go through the full legislative process: committee hearings, potential amendments, floor votes in both chambers, and a presidential signature. The bill was introduced April 30 and has not yet been assigned to committee as of this writing.

House action is expected but not guaranteed. Rep. Hinson has announced a House version of the Moreno-style resolution. That resolution would only require House passage. The Gillibrand-McCormick bill would require both chambers.

The broader bill stack remains crowded. At least ten prediction market bills are active in Congress, ranging from narrow ethics measures to categorical bans on sports contracts. The CFTC's Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking comment period closed April 30 — the same day the Senate voted. Federal rulemaking and legislative action are now running on parallel tracks.

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FAQ

Does the Senate ban affect my ability to trade on Kalshi or Polymarket? No. Senate Resolution 708 restricts senators and Senate staff from trading. It does not affect platform operations or public access. Kalshi and Polymarket remain open to eligible users.

What is the Prediction Market Act of 2026? A bipartisan Senate bill introduced April 30, 2026, by Sens. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) and Dave McCormick (R-PA). It would ban elected officials and senior executive branch appointees from trading on prediction markets, require CFTC insider trading standards for the industry, mandate consumer protections, and create new oversight offices within the CFTC.

Does the Prediction Market Act ban specific types of markets? Not categorically. It would give the CFTC discretionary authority to ban contracts involving war, violence, terrorism, and assassination on a case-by-case "public interest" finding — a more targeted approach than a blanket prohibition.

Is Polymarket available to US users for political markets? Not currently through the US platform. QCX LLC, Polymarket's CFTC-licensed US entity, offers sports markets to US users. Global polymarket.com — which offers political, economic, and cultural contracts — is not accessible to US users under the current regulatory arrangement.

What happens if a senator violates the new rule? Violations of Senate rules can result in proceedings before the Senate Ethics Committee. Potential penalties include censure or expulsion, though such outcomes are historically rare.

Has the House passed a similar ban? Not yet as of this writing. Rep. Hinson announced plans to introduce a House resolution mirroring the Senate rule. A separate resolution was also introduced by Rep. Dina Titus (D-NV).

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Conclusion

April 30, 2026 was the most consequential single day for prediction market legislation in American history. The U.S. Senate — an institution that rarely agrees on anything unanimously — voted without dissent to prohibit its own members and staff from trading on the platforms it also regulates. Hours later, a bipartisan pair of senators introduced a comprehensive bill that would extend those restrictions to the executive branch while building the first formal consumer protection framework for the entire industry.

None of this shuts down prediction markets. Both leading platforms endorsed the Senate ban. The Prediction Market Act explicitly preserves CFTC jurisdiction and would not eliminate any market category outright.

What it does is establish a governing consensus that prediction markets are real enough, powerful enough, and politically sensitive enough to require guardrails. That consensus did not exist a year ago. It does now.

For traders, the practical impact is near-zero today. The longer-term significance is structural: an industry that operates under clearer rules, with insider trading standards, consumer protections, and an explicit regulatory framework, is an industry that can grow without the threat of being banned.

For more on the broader legislative landscape, see our 2026 Congressional Prediction Market Bills Tracker.

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Sources & Verification

• Senate Resolution 708 passed unanimously April 30, 2026: AP/PBS NewsHour — verified May 3, 2026
• Moreno quote on Senate floor: NBC News — verified May 3, 2026
• Padilla amendment added Senate staff coverage: AP/PBS NewsHour — verified May 3, 2026
• Schumer "no-brainer" and House urging: NBC News — verified May 3, 2026
• Young quote on more legislation needed: Roll Call — verified May 3, 2026
• Hinson House resolution announcement: Roll Call — verified May 3, 2026
• NYT on 16 accounts making $100,000+ on Iran strike: New York Times — verified May 3, 2026
• Tillis "casino" quote: Roll Call — verified May 3, 2026
• Polymarket support statement on X: NBC News — verified May 3, 2026
• Kalshi CEO Mansour support statement: NBC News — verified May 3, 2026
• Van Dyke charges ($400,000+ Polymarket profits): CFTC Press Release 9217-26 and DOJ OPA PR 26-397 (Tier 1) — verified April 24, 2026
• Three candidates suspended by Kalshi: NBC News — verified May 3, 2026
• Prediction Market Act of 2026 full provisions: Sen. Gillibrand official press release, April 30, 2026 — verified May 3, 2026
• McCormick quote on the bill: Semafor exclusive, April 30, 2026 — verified May 3, 2026
• Kalshi CEO Mansour endorsing Prediction Market Act: Semafor exclusive, April 30, 2026 — verified May 3, 2026
• CFTC case-by-case war/violence authority in Gillibrand-McCormick bill: Politico, April 30, 2026 — verified May 3, 2026
• QCX LLC is Polymarket's CFTC-licensed US entity (sports-only): CFTC DCM registry — verified standing data
• Kalshi CFTC DCM designation (November 2020): CFTC Press Release 8302-20 — verified standing data