No platform deals. No sign-up bonuses. No referral revenue. Here's what that means for the data you read here.
PredictionMarkets.US is an independent data and editorial site. It aggregates publicly available market data from prediction market exchanges, publishes guides and regulatory analysis, and tracks the legal landscape for U.S. prediction markets. It is not a prediction market platform and does not offer trading accounts.
The site has no commercial relationship with Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt, or any other platform it covers. There are no promo codes, no sign-up bonuses, no referral links, and no revenue tied to how many users open platform accounts.
That absence is intentional. When a site earns money every time you sign up for Platform A, it has a financial stake in how it presents Platform A. This site doesn't.
Affiliate publishing is a common and legitimate business model. Understanding how it works helps you read any financial or sports media site more critically.
The promo code arrangement
A media publisher signs up with a platform's affiliate program. The platform assigns a unique promo code or referral link. When a reader uses that code to open an account, the publisher receives a cash payment or ongoing revenue share.
The structural incentive
The publisher now earns more when readers sign up for Platform A. That creates a financial incentive — whether conscious or not — to rank Platform A highly, cover its features favorably, and minimize coverage of its downsides or legal problems.
The disclosure problem
Publishers are required by FTC rules to disclose affiliate relationships, and many do. But a small "Advertiser Disclosure" link at the top of a review page is easy to miss. The financial incentive is present regardless of whether the reader notices it.
This is not an accusation against affiliate publishers — it is a description of how the model works. Many publications that run promo code content also produce excellent independent journalism. The structural conflict exists regardless of individual editorial quality.
| Aspect | Affiliate / promo code site | PredictionMarkets.US |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue model | Commission when you sign up via their link | No platform sign-up revenue |
| Promo codes | Yes — tracked to their affiliate account | None — no promo code relationships exist |
| Platform coverage | May favor partners with higher commissions | Same coverage regardless of platform |
| Negative news | Can undermine sign-up revenue — conflict exists | Covered the same as any other market event |
| Data source | Often manually curated or sourced from operators | Direct public API feeds with timestamps |
| Disclosure | Required by FTC rules; usually a small disclaimer | No affiliate disclosure needed — no affiliate relationships |
Market prices, volumes, and contract data on PredictionMarkets.US come directly from the platforms' public APIs — not from operator-provided feeds, data partnerships, or third-party aggregators that have commercial relationships with the platforms. Each data point carries a timestamp showing when it was retrieved.
Market prices, contract volumes, settlement outcomes, and open interest — retrieved directly from Kalshi's public trading API.
Orderbook data, contract prices, and resolution status — retrieved directly from Polymarket's public CLOB (Central Limit Order Book) API.
We have live API connections to Kalshi, Polymarket, and PredictIt. Pages that display live data from those platforms include a "last updated" timestamp on every data point.
No platform preference
No platform on PredictionMarkets.US receives favorable coverage because of a commercial relationship. When Kalshi faces a legal challenge, it gets covered. When Polymarket has a data discrepancy, it gets noted.
Primary source citations
Factual claims about platforms — fees, regulatory status, legal proceedings — trace to primary sources: CFTC filings, platform terms of service, court records. We don't republish operator-supplied talking points without independent verification.
No sign-up pressure
There are no "Best Bonus" callout boxes, limited-time sign-up offers, or urgency tactics designed to push you to open an account before you've read the fine print. The platform comparison data is there to inform, not to convert.
Data you can verify
Market prices link back to the platform where you can verify them. Fee data cites the help-center page it came from. Regulatory status links to the actual CFTC order, not a summary of a summary.
Bad news gets covered
A platform with legal problems, a broken withdrawal process, or a manipulation incident doesn't get a pass here because it spends on advertising. Coverage of platform risk is part of the editorial mandate, not a threat to revenue.
You can still do your own check
If you want to verify our independence, look for affiliate disclosures on this site — you won't find one, because there's nothing to disclose. Then compare to sites where the disclosure is present. The difference is structural.
A note on accuracy: Independence from platform revenue does not mean infallibility. Prices can lag by seconds during high-volume trading. Regulatory status can change before we update a page. We note data timestamps on live pages and include "confirm at the platform's official site" caveats where the data is time-sensitive.
How to Evaluate Any PM Analysis Source
Five questions to ask before trusting any prediction market coverage — not just ours.
Prediction Market Media Independence
Which news outlets have platform funding relationships, and how that shapes the industry's media landscape.
Platform Fees Comparison
Fees data sourced directly from each platform's published fee schedule — no operator-provided numbers.
