Will a federal film or TV production tax credit become law? — Before Jan 1, 2027

7% chance

Yes7%

Buy Yes10¢11¢ after fees

No93%

Buy No96¢97¢ after fees

Listed on 1 venue

Chance over time

Yes price, by venue

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Quiet market: no big moves or venue gaps in the last 24 hours.

1 venue

Chance

Best

Yes7%—10¢

10¢11¢ after fees

No93%—96¢

96¢97¢ after fees

Each share pays $1 if it’s right. Green marks the cheapest venue after fees; every price opens that venue’s market.

Kalshiat 10¢: exit costs ~1¢/contract on a 1-contract order, rounded up to 1¢

Kalshi

If a federal film or television production tax credit has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.