December 31

About This Market

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the White House publicly and officially announces a tariff decrease on Canada between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any tariff decrease which is officially announced within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of if/when the change goes into effect. The announced replacement of an existing tariff on Canada with a tariff of a lower rate will qualify, but the replacement of an existing tariff with a tariff of an equal or higher rate will not qualify. The announced removal of a relevant existing tariff will also qualify. A qualifying announcement must be made by Donald Trump acting in his official capacity, through an official White House publication or communication, or by a White House official authorized to speak on behalf of Donald Trump or the White House. Announcements, notices, publications, or actions issued solely by federal departments or agencies, including U.S. Customs and Border Protection, the Department of Commerce, the Office of the United States Trade Representative, or the U.S. International Trade Commission, do not qualify on their own. This includes updates or amendments to the Harmonized Tariff Schedule, customs rulings, implementation guidance, changes to product coverage or exclusions, and antidumping or countervailing duty determinations. Such agency-level actions do not qualify merely because they implement or exercise authority delegated by Donald Trump or the White House. The relevant tariff change must itself be the subject of a qualifying announcement by Donald Trump or the White House within the market's time frame. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the U.S. government's present implementation of, previously-unannounced prior implementation of, or definitive decision to implement a tariff decrease against Canada. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a relevant tariff decrease. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such a change in tariffs, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. An announcement by Donald Trump or the White House that the United States accepts or agrees to an agreement, framework, or roadmap that includes a commitment to a tariff decrease qualifies only if (i) all parties whose acceptance is required for the agreement to take effect have accepted the agreement, or (ii) the announcement independently communicates a qualifying tariff decrease as a present and decided position of the United States, not contingent on acceptance by any other party. The following do not qualify as official announcements: Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed by Donald Trump or the White House through a qualifying announcement; Statements by persons other than Donald Trump or White House officials authorized to speak on behalf of Donald Trump or the White House; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States will announce or implement such a policy; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional implementation of such a policy rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether a tariff decrease is ever actually implemented. Resolution will be based on official information from Donald Trump or the White House.