Beta
    LIVE

    Above 10000

    Volume

    $6.6M

    $701 24h

    Platforms

    2

    Cross-platform pricing

    Resolution

    Resolves Dec 31, 2026

    ~212 days left

    Category

    Culture

    9¢CHANCE OF YES9%91%
    Yes
    9¢
    Kalshi
    No
    92¢
    Polymarket

    Opens on best-price platform

    Compare & Trade

    2 platforms
    PPolymarket
    Best No
    Yes
    10¢
    No
    92¢
    Vol
    $6.5M
    $701 24h
    Trade on Polymarket
    KKalshi
    Best Yes
    Yes
    9¢
    No
    92¢
    Vol
    $140.9K
    Trade on Kalshi

    Price History

    May 27 11:00May 28 15:00May 29 20:00May 31 00:00Jun 1 03:00Jun 2 08:283¢8¢13¢21¢

    About This Market

    If the number of measles in 2026 is above 10000, then the market resolves to Yes.

    How This Resolves

    KKalshi

    Source: Official awards body or network announcement

    Rule: Resolves based on the official announcement from the relevant awards body or organization.

    View rule How to verify
    PPolymarket

    Source: UMA oracle / official announcements

    Rule: Resolves based on official announcement. Admin review for ambiguous outcomes.

    View rule How to verify

    Different resolution sources can explain price gaps between platforms. Check both rules before interpreting a spread as an opportunity.

    Market Quality

    Kalshi:Broad consensus
    Poly:Concentrated
    Vol: $2.1M / $8.4M · Largest pos: <4% / ~18%

    Fee Impact at These Prices

    KKalshiat 9¢: exit costs ~0.57¢/contract
    PPolymarketat 10¢: exit costs ~0¢/contract
    Full calculator

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    Market Details

    ResolutionResolves Dec 31, 2026
    Time Left212 days
    Status● Active
    CategoryCulture

    Related reading

    External
    Culture

    Measles Cases and Outbreaks | Measles (Rubeola) | CDC

    1 minUnknown
    Culture

    US nears 2,000 measles cases as scientists note brain inflammation, pneumonia in hospital cases | CIDRAP

    1 minUnknown
    Culture

    Measles, Indigenous (Week 16) Weekly cases* of notifiable diseases, United States, U.S. Territories, and Non-U.S. Residents week ending April 25, 2026

    1 minUnknown
    Culture

    Measles, whooping cough spike amid low vaccination rates • Stateline

    1 minTim Henderson
    Culture

    US nears 1,700 measles cases, with 73 new infections in Utah | CIDRAP

    1 minUnknown
    Culture

    Measles cases in U.S. in 2026? Predictions & Live Odds | Bitget Wallet

    1 minUnknown
    Culture

    Health Officer’s Report

    1 minAnn Pitsnogle
    Culture

    Measles Escalating US Threat IDSA Warning

    1 minInfectious Disease Special Edition

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