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    Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

    Volume

    $2.8M

    $15.9K 24h

    Platforms

    1

    Cross-platform pricing

    Resolution

    Resolves Dec 31, 2026

    ~204 days left

    Category

    Politics

    17¢CHANCE OF YES17%83%
    Yes-2¢
    17¢
    Polymarket
    No+2¢
    84¢
    Polymarket

    Opens on best-price platform

    Compare & Trade

    1 platform
    PPolymarket
    Best Yes
    Best No
    Yes
    17¢
    No
    84¢
    Vol
    $2.8M
    $15.9K 24h
    Trade on Polymarket

    Price History

    Jun 4 16:00Jun 5 18:00Jun 6 20:00Jun 7 22:00Jun 9 00:00Jun 10 03:00Jun 11 10:5512¢16¢20¢24¢28¢

    About This Market

    This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

    How This Resolves

    PPolymarket

    Source: AP or official government declaration

    Rule: Resolves based on AP call or official declaration. Admin review committee handles edge cases.

    View rule How to verify

    Market Quality

    Kalshi:Broad consensus
    Poly:Concentrated
    Vol: $2.1M / $8.4M · Largest pos: <4% / ~18%

    Fee Impact at These Prices

    PPolymarketat 17¢: exit costs ~0¢/contract
    Full calculator

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    Market Details

    ResolutionResolves Dec 31, 2026
    Time Left204 days
    Status● Active
    CategoryPolitics

    Related reading

    External
    Politics

    Inside Trump's accelerating squeeze on Cuba

    1 minMarc Caputo
    Politics

    Military has spent months building up ships and personnel in Caribbean and is ready for invasion of Cuba: report | The Independent

    1 minUnknown
    Politics

    Three ways Cuba crisis could play out after US indictment of Raúl Castro

    1 minUnknown
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    The Next Caribbean Crisis? Assessing U.S. Military Options Toward Cuba

    1 minUnknown
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    The U.S. is Setting its Sights on Cuba - The Soufan Center

    1 minGaby Tejeda
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    Would American military action against Cuba work?

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    What Could US Military Action Against Cuba Look Like? - Newsweek

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    Rubio doubtful of diplomacy with Cuba as Trump raises new threat of military action

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