Next Claude Opus Model (5.6+): Text Arena Debut?

    Next Claude Opus Model (5.6+): Text Arena Debut? — 1540+

    19% chance

    Yes19%Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USYes21¢22¢ after fees
    No81%Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USNo84¢85¢ after fees
    Resolves
    Jun 30, 2027
    Volume
    $3.3K
    24h
    $0
    Liquidity
    $899
    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USListed on 1 venue

    Chance over time

    Polymarket USPolymarket USCFTC-regulated

    Deposit $10, get $25

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    Signals

    Quiet market: no big moves or venue gaps in the last 24 hours.

    Every venue’s price

    1 venue
    ChanceBest
    Yes19%—Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US21¢22¢ after fees
    No82%—Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US84¢85¢ after fees

    Each share pays $1 if it’s right. Green marks the cheapest venue after fees; every price opens that venue’s market.

    Before you trade

    Fee Impact at These Prices

    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USPolymarketat 21¢: exit costs ~0.66¢/contract
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    How each venue settles it

    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USPolymarket (global)

    This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Claude Opus model (5.6+) added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that inc…

    Full rules on Polymarket (global) ↗

    About this market

    Category
    Culture
    Event
    Next Claude Opus Model (5.6+): Text Arena Debut?
    Resolves
    Wed, June 30, 2027
    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USCompared across 1 venue

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