Beta
    LIVE

    Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?

    Volume

    $3.2M

    $38.0K 24h

    Platforms

    1

    Cross-platform pricing

    Resolution

    Resolves Jan 1, 2027

    ~213 days left

    Category

    Crypto

    7¢CHANCE OF YES7%93%
    Yes
    7¢
    Polymarket
    No
    93¢
    Polymarket

    Opens on best-price platform

    Compare & Trade

    1 platform
    PPolymarket
    Best Yes
    Best No
    Yes
    7¢
    No
    93¢
    Vol
    $3.2M
    $38.0K 24h
    Trade on Polymarket

    Price History

    May 27 11:00May 28 15:00May 29 20:00May 31 00:00Jun 1 03:00Jun 2 08:282¢5¢8¢13¢

    About This Market

    This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time between January 9, 2026, 1:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.

    How This Resolves

    PPolymarket

    Source: CoinGecko / Binance spot price

    Rule: Resolves at specified time using designated price feed.

    View rule How to verify

    Market Quality

    Kalshi:Broad consensus
    Poly:Concentrated
    Vol: $2.1M / $8.4M · Largest pos: <4% / ~18%

    Fee Impact at These Prices

    PPolymarketat 7¢: exit costs ~0¢/contract
    Full calculator

    Related Events

    K
    Before 2027 - 5¢

    Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin by 2027?

    Crypto·1 mkts·$4 24h·Resolves Jan 1, 2027
    K
    Above $99,999.99 - 26¢

    How high will Bitcoin get in 2026?

    Crypto·7 mkts·$11.4K 24h·Resolves Jan 1, 2027
    P
    ↓ 55,000 - 60¢

    What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?

    Crypto·26 mkts·$555.2K 24h·Resolves Jan 1, 2027
    K
    Below $60,000.00 - 71¢

    How low will Bitcoin get in 2026?

    Crypto·5 mkts·$2.8K 24h·Resolves Jan 1, 2027

    Market Details

    ResolutionResolves Jan 1, 2027
    Time Left213 days
    Status● Active
    CategoryCrypto

    Related reading

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