Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by...? — November 30

    30% chance

    Yes30%Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USYes34¢no fee
    No70%Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USNo74¢no fee
    Resolves
    Nov 30, 2026
    Volume
    $6.7K
    24h
    $239
    Liquidity
    $1.4K
    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USListed on 1 venue

    Chance over time

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    Signals

    Quiet market: no big moves or venue gaps in the last 24 hours.

    Every venue’s price

    1 venue
    ChanceBest
    Yes30%—Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US34¢no fee
    No70%—Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US74¢no fee

    Each share pays $1 if it’s right. Green marks the cheapest venue after fees; every price opens that venue’s market.

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    Fee Impact at These Prices

    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USPolymarketat 34¢: exit costs ~0¢/contract
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    How each venue settles it

    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USPolymarket (global)

    This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets the United Arab Emirates through a qualifying military action between market creation and the listed date, Gulf Standard Time (GST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at the United Arab Emirates. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surf…

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    About this market

    Category
    Politics
    Resolves
    Mon, November 30, 2026
    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USCompared across 1 venue

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