china invade taiwan on 2026-09-30
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
china invade taiwan on 2026-09-30. Best Yes near 1¢ across 1 platform. Live cross-platform prices. Not financial advice.
Best Yes: 1¢ · Best No: 100¢ · 1 platform
- Polymarket: Yes 1¢ / No 100¢

Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
$2.1M
$6.4K 24h
1
Cross-platform pricing
Resolves Oct 1, 2026
~17 days left
Politics
Opens on best-price platform
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1 platform
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Price History
About This Market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
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