Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
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Resolves Jun 30, 2026
~20 days left
Politics
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About This Market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
How This Resolves
Source: AP or official government declaration
Rule: Resolves based on AP call or official declaration. Admin review committee handles edge cases.
Market Quality
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Market Details
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