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    Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

    Volume

    $31.8M

    $160.0K 24h

    Platforms

    1

    Cross-platform pricing

    Resolution

    Resolves Dec 31, 2026

    ~212 days left

    Category

    Politics

    7¢CHANCE OF YES6%94%
    Yes-1¢
    7¢
    Polymarket
    No+1¢
    94¢
    Polymarket

    Opens on best-price platform

    Compare & Trade

    1 platform
    PPolymarket
    Best Yes
    Best No
    Yes
    7¢
    No
    94¢
    Vol
    $31.8M
    $160.0K 24h
    Trade on Polymarket

    Price History

    May 27 11:00May 28 15:00May 29 20:00May 31 00:00Jun 1 03:00Jun 2 08:271¢4¢7¢12¢

    About This Market

    This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

    How This Resolves

    PPolymarket

    Source: AP or official government declaration

    Rule: Resolves based on AP call or official declaration. Admin review committee handles edge cases.

    View rule How to verify

    Market Quality

    Kalshi:Broad consensus
    Poly:Concentrated
    Vol: $2.1M / $8.4M · Largest pos: <4% / ~18%

    Fee Impact at These Prices

    PPolymarketat 7¢: exit costs ~0¢/contract
    Full calculator

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    Market Details

    ResolutionResolves Dec 31, 2026
    Time Left212 days
    Status● Active
    CategoryPolitics

    Related reading

    External
    Politics

    Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Polymarket Analytics

    1 minPrimo Data
    Politics

    Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

    1 minUnknown
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    China Not Committed to 2027 Taiwan Invasion, U.S. Intel Report Says - USNI News

    1 minAaron-Matthew Lariosa
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    US intelligence agencies not expecting China to invade Taiwan in 2027 | Military News | Al Jazeera

    1 minErin Hale
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    Will China Invade Taiwan in the Coming Years?

    1 minUnknown
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    China & Taiwan Update, March 27, 2026 | ISW

    1 minAdam Grace
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    2027 seen as benchmark, not trigger point for Taiwan conflict | Taiwan Security | Politics | Taiwan Current News

    1 minTaiwan Current News
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    Does China Not Intend to Invade by 2027? | New Bloom Magazine

    1 minBrian Hioe

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