Will a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31?

Will a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31? — #3

16% chance

Yes16%

Buy Yes17¢18¢ after fees

No84%

Buy No85¢86¢ after fees

Resolves: Dec 31, 2026
Volume: $99.9K
24h: $2.0K
Liquidity: $14.9K

Listed on 1 venue

Chance over time

Yes price, by venue

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Signals

Quiet market: no big moves or venue gaps in the last 24 hours.

Every venue’s price

1 venue

Chance

Best

Yes16%—17¢

17¢18¢ after fees

No84%—85¢

85¢86¢ after fees

Each share pays $1 if it’s right. Green marks the cheapest venue after fees; every price opens that venue’s market.

Before you trade

Fee Impact at These Prices

Polymarketat 17¢: exit costs ~0.56¢/contract

Full calculator

How each venue settles it

Polymarket (global)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Chinese company owns a model that ranks within the top 3, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-sty…

Full rules on Polymarket (global) ↗

About this market

Category: Culture
Event: Will a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31?
Resolves: Thu, December 31, 2026