Russia military action against EU country by...?

Russia military action against EU country by...? — December 31, 2026

3% chance

Yes3%

Buy Yes3¢no fee

No97%

Buy No97¢no fee

Resolves: Dec 31, 2026
Volume: $278.8K
24h: $909
Liquidity: $12.1K

Listed on 1 venue

Chance over time

Yes price, by venue

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Signals

Quiet market: no big moves or venue gaps in the last 24 hours.

Every venue’s price

1 venue

Chance

Best

Yes3%—3¢

3¢no fee

No97%—97¢

97¢no fee

Each share pays $1 if it’s right. Green marks the cheapest venue after fees; every price opens that venue’s market.

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Fee Impact at These Prices

Polymarketat 3¢: exit costs ~0¢/contract

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How each venue settles it

Polymarket (global)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia takes a qualifying military action against an EU member state between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Russia, that directly impacts an EU member state. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missil…

Full rules on Polymarket (global) ↗

About this market

Category: Politics
Event: Russia military action against EU country by...?
Resolves: Thu, December 31, 2026