About This Market

A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member electorate and one party vote for a political party list. This market will resolve to “Labour” if the Labour Party receives a higher percentage of valid party list votes than the National Party in this election. This market will resolve to “National” if the National Party receives a higher percentage of valid party list votes than the Labour Party in this election. Percentages of valid party list votes received by the Labour Party and the National Party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each party receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election. This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Māori electorate. This market will resolve solely based on party list votes cast in this election. Electorate votes will not be considered. If the Labour Party and the National Party receive the same percentage of valid party list votes in this election, this market will resolve 50-50. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.