NATO x Russia military clash by...? — December 31

    11% chance

    Yes11%Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USYes11¢no fee
    No89%Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USNo90¢no fee
    Resolves
    Dec 31, 2026
    Volume
    $3.8M
    24h
    $13.2K
    Liquidity
    $90.8K
    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USListed on 1 venue

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    Signals

    Quiet market: no big moves or venue gaps in the last 24 hours.

    Every venue’s price

    1 venue
    ChanceBest
    Yes11%—Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US11¢no fee
    No90%—Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US90¢no fee

    Each share pays $1 if it’s right. Green marks the cheapest venue after fees; every price opens that venue’s market.

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    Fee Impact at These Prices

    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USPolymarketat 11¢: exit costs ~0¢/contract
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    How each venue settles it

    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USPolymarket (global)

    This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of a NATO country and Russia between January 2, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between NAT…

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    About this market

    Category
    Politics
    Resolves
    Thu, December 31, 2026
    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USCompared across 1 venue

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