European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by...?

European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by...? — December 31, 2026

7% chance

Yes7%

Buy Yes8¢no fee

No93%

Buy No95¢no fee

Resolves: Dec 31, 2026
Volume: $98.6K
24h: $0
Liquidity: $12.3K

Listed on 1 venue

Chance over time

Yes price, by venue

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Signals

Quiet market: no big moves or venue gaps in the last 24 hours.

Every venue’s price

1 venue

Chance

Best

Yes7%—8¢

8¢no fee

No94%—95¢

95¢no fee

Each share pays $1 if it’s right. Green marks the cheapest venue after fees; every price opens that venue’s market.

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Fee Impact at These Prices

Polymarketat 8¢: exit costs ~0¢/contract

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How each venue settles it

Polymarket (global)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European country formally commits to giving Ukraine a security guarantee, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed deal between the relevant European country and the Government of Ukraine which creates a binding obligation for the relevant European country to defend or directly intervene on Ukraine’s behalf, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market…

Full rules on Polymarket (global) ↗

About this market

Category: Politics
Event: European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by...?
Resolves: Thu, December 31, 2026