Will Trump recognize Somaliland? — Before Jan 1, 2028

33% chance

Yes33%

Buy Yes36¢38¢ after fees

No67%

Buy No70¢72¢ after fees

Resolves: Jan 1, 2028
Volume: $302
24h: $0

Listed on 1 venue

Chance over time

Yes price, by venue

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Signals

Quiet market: no big moves or venue gaps in the last 24 hours.

Every venue’s price

1 venue

Chance

Best

Yes33%—36¢

36¢38¢ after fees

No67%—70¢

70¢72¢ after fees

Each share pays $1 if it’s right. Green marks the cheapest venue after fees; every price opens that venue’s market.

Before you trade

Fee Impact at These Prices

Kalshiat 36¢: exit costs ~2¢/contract on a 1-contract order, rounded up to 1¢

Full calculator

How each venue settles it

Kalshi

If the United States explicitly and formally recognizes Somaliland as a sovereign state independent from any previously recognized country after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules on Kalshi ↗

About this market

Category: Politics
Event: Will Trump recognize Somaliland?
Resolves: Sat, January 1, 2028