When will nuclear fusion be achieved? — Before 2040

76% chance

Yes76%

Buy Yes87¢88¢ after fees

No24%

Buy No36¢38¢ after fees

Listed on 1 venue

Chance over time

Yes price, by venue

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Quiet market: no big moves or venue gaps in the last 24 hours.

1 venue

Chance

Best

Yes76%—87¢

87¢88¢ after fees

No25%—36¢

36¢38¢ after fees

Each share pays $1 if it’s right. Green marks the cheapest venue after fees; every price opens that venue’s market.

Kalshiat 87¢: exit costs ~1¢/contract on a 1-contract order, rounded up to 1¢

Kalshi

If nuclear fusion is achieved before Jan 1, 2040, then the market resolves to Yes.