How many wide film releases in Q4 2026? — At least 45

95% chance

Yes95%

Buy Yes96¢97¢ after fees

No5%

Buy No6¢7¢ after fees

Listed on 1 venue

Chance over time

Yes price, by venue

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Quiet market: no big moves or venue gaps in the last 24 hours.

1 venue

Chance

Best

Yes95%—96¢

96¢97¢ after fees

No5%—6¢

6¢7¢ after fees

Each share pays $1 if it’s right. Green marks the cheapest venue after fees; every price opens that venue’s market.

Kalshiat 96¢: exit costs ~1¢/contract on a 1-contract order, rounded up to 1¢

Kalshi

If the number of wide film releases on the Domestic Release Schedule by Box Office Mojo in Q4 2026 is at least 45, then the market resolves to Yes.