Deportations in 2026? — Above 600,000

3% chance

Yes3%

Buy Yes4¢5¢ after fees

No97%

Buy No98¢99¢ after fees

Listed on 1 venue

Chance over time

Yes price, by venue

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Quiet market: no big moves or venue gaps in the last 24 hours.

1 venue

Chance

Best

Yes3%—4¢

4¢5¢ after fees

No97%—98¢

98¢99¢ after fees

Each share pays $1 if it’s right. Green marks the cheapest venue after fees; every price opens that venue’s market.

Kalshiat 4¢: exit costs ~1¢/contract on a 1-contract order, rounded up to 1¢

Kalshi

If the number of ICE removals is above 600,000 in FY2026, then the market resolves to Yes.