How high will average weekly Hormuz traffic get in 2026?

How high will average weekly Hormuz traffic get in 2026? — Above 50

8% chance

Yes8%

Buy Yes9¢10¢ after fees

No92%

Buy No93¢94¢ after fees

Resolves: Jan 5, 2027
Volume: $21.1K
24h: $0

Listed on 1 venue

Chance over time

Yes price, by venue

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Signals

Quiet market: no big moves or venue gaps in the last 24 hours.

Every venue’s price

1 venue

Chance

Best

Yes8%—9¢

9¢10¢ after fees

No92%—93¢

93¢94¢ after fees

Each share pays $1 if it’s right. Green marks the cheapest venue after fees; every price opens that venue’s market.

Before you trade

Fee Impact at These Prices

Kalshiat 9¢: exit costs ~1¢/contract on a 1-contract order, rounded up to 1¢

Full calculator

How each venue settles it

Kalshi

If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 50 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Full rules on Kalshi ↗

About this market

Category: Politics
Event: How high will average weekly Hormuz traffic get in 2026?
Resolves: Tue, January 5, 2027