🏛️

    Jared Polis

    Volume

    $25.9M

    $42.5K 24h

    Platforms

    2

    Cross-platform pricing

    Resolution

    Resolves Nov 7, 2028

    ~889 days left

    Arbitrage

    +46.2¢

    Spread detected

    CHANCE OF YES1%99%
    Yes
    Polymarket
    No
    53¢
    Kalshi

    Opens on best-price platform

    Compare & Trade

    2 platforms
    PPolymarket
    Best Yes
    Yes
    No
    99¢
    Vol
    $25.9M
    $42.5K 24h
    Trade on Polymarket
    KKalshi
    Best No
    Yes
    50¢
    No
    53¢
    Vol
    $4.8K
    Trade on Kalshi

    Price History

    May 27 11:00May 28 15:00May 29 20:00May 31 00:00Jun 1 03:00Jun 2 08:2615¢30¢56¢

    About This Market

    This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

    How This Resolves

    PPolymarket

    Source: AP or official government declaration

    Rule: Resolves based on AP call or official declaration. Admin review committee handles edge cases.

    KKalshi

    Source: Official government sources (AP, official canvass)

    Rule: Resolves based on AP race call or official certified result, whichever comes first.

    Different resolution sources can explain price gaps between platforms. Check both rules before interpreting a spread as an opportunity.

    Market Quality

    Kalshi:Broad consensus
    Poly:Concentrated
    Vol: $2.1M / $8.4M · Largest pos: <4% / ~18%

    Fee Impact at These Prices

    PPolymarketat 1¢: exit costs ~0¢/contract
    KKalshiat 50¢: exit costs ~1.75¢/contract
    Full calculator

    Sign in to join the discussion

    Sign In

    No comments yet. Be the first to share your take!