A step-by-step pre-trade checklist: find the resolution source, confirm contract conditions, and protect yourself before entering any contract.
Resolution risk is separate from directional risk
You can be right about the underlying event and still lose — or face a delayed payout — if you misread the contract's resolution criteria, trigger conditions, or settlement source. Both risks are visible before entry. This checklist covers the resolution side.
Expand each step for the full explanation and what to watch for.
Every regulated platform publishes resolution criteria for every market. Here's where to look.
Kalshi
Resolution source and criteria appear on the market detail page under the contract rules section. Settlement timing policy is published in the Kalshi Help Center.
Regulated as a CFTC-designated contract market (DCM).
Polymarket (US)
Resolution criteria listed in the market description and official contract rules. Polymarket global uses the UMA oracle protocol — documented at Polymarket Docs.
US (QCX): CFTC-compliant centralized resolution process.
PredictIt
Resolution criteria for each contract are listed on the market's detail page. PredictIt operates under a CFTC no-action letter through Victoria University; each contract specifies the official resolution source.
Confirm at: predictit.org market detail page.
| Market type | Typical resolution source | Watch for |
|---|---|---|
| Economic data (CPI, jobs, GDP) | U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, BEA, or BLS official release | Revisions can change the resolution outcome after an initial headline number is reported. Contracts typically specify the first official release or a subsequent revision. |
| Elections & political events | State/federal official election results or official government body announcement | Markets typically wait for certified results, not election night projections. Timing can extend days or weeks after voting. |
| Sports games & outcomes | League official results (NFL, NBA, MLB official scoring records) | Overtime, protest, or forfeit rules vary by contract. Read whether the contract uses 'final result' (includes OT) or 'regulation result.' |
| Federal Reserve rate decisions | FOMC statement or Federal Reserve press release | Contracts typically resolve on the announced target rate at the scheduled FOMC meeting, not market interpretations of speeches or minutes. |
| Legislation & regulatory actions | Congressional Record, CFTC/SEC official press releases, White House official publications | "Passes" vs. "signed into law" are different resolution conditions. Confirm which event triggers resolution. |
Settlement speed depends on the resolution source, not the platform
Prediction market platforms cannot resolve a market faster than the named resolution source publishes its official result. If a contract resolves on a government data release scheduled for 8:30 AM ET, settlement begins at or after that time. Delays in the source's publication schedule — not the platform — are the most common reason settlement takes longer than expected.
Most settlement issues resolve on their own once the official source publishes. Contact platform support only when one of these applies:
The resolution source has not published its official result yet
Wait — the platform cannot resolve faster than the official source releases data. Check the source's publication schedule directly. File a support ticket only if resolution is delayed significantly beyond the source's known publication date.
File at: Platform help center (linked under each market's resolution criteria).
The platform resolved the market inconsistently with the named source
Screenshot the market resolution notice, the official source data with timestamp, and the contract's stated resolution criteria. Submit a formal dispute through the platform's resolution dispute channel. Include all three elements in your first message.
File at: Kalshi: support.kalshi.com. Polymarket (US / QCX): QCX support channel. PredictIt: support@predictit.org.
The resolution criteria were amended after you entered the market
Document the original contract language and the amended language. Contact support to understand the scope of any change and whether it affects open positions.
File at: Platform support — reference the specific contract ID and the amendment notice.
Payout has not appeared within the platform's stated settlement window
Confirm the market has officially resolved (resolution notice visible on market page). Check your withdrawal history, not just your balance. If resolution is confirmed and the payout window has elapsed, file a support ticket with your account ID and market ID.
File at: Platform help center — select 'Settlements and Payouts' category.
Use this before entering any unfamiliar contract. Check each item as you verify it.
How Prediction Markets Settle
The full mechanics of how platforms determine outcomes and transfer funds.
Contract Wording: Traps & Tells
How to read prediction market contract language and spot ambiguous conditions before they cost you.
How to Audit a Resolution After It Happens
What to do if you believe a market resolved incorrectly — including how to file a dispute.
