Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail?

28% chance · down 2 pts today

Yes28%▼ 2

Buy Yes31¢33¢ after fees

No72%▲ 2

Buy No74¢76¢ after fees

1 venue · 1 market

Chance over time

Yes price, by venue

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Deposit $10, get $25

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Quiet market: no big moves or venue gaps in the last 24 hours.

1 venue

Chance

Best

Yes28%▼ 231¢

31¢33¢ after fees

No72%▲ 274¢

74¢76¢ after fees

Each share pays $1 if it’s right. Green marks the cheapest venue after fees; every price opens that venue’s market.

Biggest trades

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Compared across 1 venue