Will a Chinese AI model be #1 this year?

7% chance

Yes7%

Buy Yes7¢8¢ after fees

No93%

Buy No92¢fee unknown

2 venues · 1 market

Chance over time

Yes price, by venue

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Quiet market: no big moves or venue gaps in the last 24 hours.

2 venues

Chance

Best

Yes7%—7¢9¢

7¢8¢ after fees

92¢fee unknown

Each share pays $1 if it’s right. Green marks the cheapest venue after fees; every price opens that venue’s market.

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Kalshi

If a Chinese LLM is ranked as the top-ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Polymarket US

Chinese AI Model Ranked #1?

Before 2027

Compared across 2 venues