TRADING OPEN

    Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?

    Resolves Nov 3, 2026
    Total Volume

    $354.9K

    +$24.0K (24h)

    Active Markets

    4

    Across 1 platform

    Frontrunner

    67¢

    No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate

    Biggest Mover 24h

    -1¢

    No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate

    Arb Opportunities

    0

    None detected

    All Markets

    4 markets
    #
    167¢67¢
    $55.9K+$7.5K 24h
    -1¢—
    231¢31¢
    $68.4K+$5.5K 24h
    +1¢—
    31¢1¢
    $117.2K+$4.6K 24h
    ——
    41¢1¢
    $113.3K+$6.4K 24h
    -1¢—

    Implied Probability

    Consensus across platforms
    1No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate
    67%
    67¢-1¢
    2No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate
    31%
    31¢+1¢
    3Agreement + Oil < $80; D Senate
    1¢—
    4Agreement + Oil < $80; R Senate
    1¢-1¢

    Event Info

    Resolution Date

    ~Nov 3, 2026

    ~14 days remaining
    Category
    Politics
    Markets
    4
    Platforms
    1
    Total Volume
    $354.9K

    Whale Activity

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