Which USMCA outcomes will occur in 2026?
Which USMCA outcomes will occur in 2026? Live odds across 8 markets: U.S.–Mexico interim agreement at 35¢. Resolves Jan 1, 2027. Not financial advice.
Resolves Jan 1, 2027
- Formal USMCA amendment: Yes 19¢ (kalshi)
- Formal 16-year extension: Yes 14¢ (kalshi)
- Mexican withdrawal notice: Yes 10¢ (kalshi)
- Canadian withdrawal notice: Yes 9¢ (kalshi)
- U.S. withdrawal notice: Yes 14¢ (kalshi)
- Trilateral revised deal: Yes 25¢ (kalshi)
- U.S.–Canada interim agreement: Yes 31¢ (kalshi)
- U.S.–Mexico interim agreement: Yes 35¢ (kalshi)
TRADING OPEN
8sWhich USMCA outcomes will occur in 2026?
Resolves Jan 1, 2027
Total Volume
$12.1K
+$410 (24h)
Active Markets
8
Across 1 platforms
Frontrunner
35¢
U.S.–Mexico interim agreement
Biggest Mover 24h
-4¢
Formal USMCA amendment
Arb Opportunities
0
None detected
All Markets
| # | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 35¢ | 35¢ | $449 | -4¢ | — | |
| 2 | 31¢ | 31¢ | $213 | -4¢ | — | |
| 3 | 25¢ | 25¢ | $645 | -4¢ | — | |
| 4 | 19¢ | 19¢ | $1.4K+$205 24h | -4¢ | — | |
| 5 | 14¢ | 14¢ | $2.4K | -4¢ | — | |
| 6 | 14¢ | 14¢ | $4.5K+$205 24h | -2¢ | — | |
| 7 | 10¢ | 10¢ | $748 | -3¢ | — | |
| 8 | 9¢ | 9¢ | $1.7K | -4¢ | — |
Implied Probability
Consensus across platformsEvent Info
Whale Activity
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