Trump

    Which USMCA outcomes will occur in 2026?

    U.S. withdrawal notice leads by 2 pts · 4 candidates at 5%+

    1. U.S. withdrawal notice#110%
    2. Mexican withdrawal notice#28%
    3. Formal USMCA amendment#37%
    #4 Canadian withdrawal notice6%
    Resolves
    Jan 1, 2027
    Volume
    $14.1K
    24h
    $0
    Candidates
    4
    kalshi1 venue · 4 markets

    Who’s winning

    • U.S. withdrawal notice10%
    • Mexican withdrawal notice8%
    • Formal USMCA amendment7%
    • Canadian withdrawal notice6%
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    Signals

    1 signal
    1. U.S. withdrawal notice24h
      ▼ 8¢ in 24hkalshi

    Every candidate, every venue

    1 venue
    ChanceBest
    U.S. withdrawal notice$2.4K vol10%▼ 8kalshi18¢20¢ after fees
    Mexican withdrawal notice$1.0K vol8%▼ 2kalshi10¢11¢ after fees
    Formal USMCA amendment$2.0K vol7%▼ 2kalshi9¢10¢ after fees
    Canadian withdrawal notice$1.8K vol6%▼ 2kalshi8¢9¢ after fees

    Yes pays $1 if it’s right. Chance is the venues’ consensus; green marks the cheapest venue after fees, and every price opens that venue’s market.

    Smart money

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    In the news

    About this market

    Category
    Politics
    Resolves
    Fri, January 1, 2027
    kalshiCompared across 1 venue

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