Where will it rain on the 4th of July?

    Where will it rain on the 4th of July? Live odds across 19 markets: Washington DC at 100¢. Resolves Jul 6, 2026. Not financial advice.

    Resolved

    TRADING OPEN
    8s

    Where will it rain on the 4th of July?

    This market will resolve to “Yes” if any precipitation is recorded at the specified weather station on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in the specified weather station on June 10, 2026 according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for the specified date when the “Daily data for a month” for “specified station” is selected with the variable set to “Precipitation” at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate link once that figure is finalized for the specified date. Trace rain, specified by a “T” in the named column, will not qualify toward a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market’s timeframe will not be considered for this market’s resolution. If the relevant data is not made available by July 12, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

    Resolved
    Total Volume

    $241.2K

    +$122.4K (24h)

    Active Markets

    19

    Across 2 platforms

    Frontrunner

    100¢

    Washington DC

    Biggest Mover 24h

    -44¢

    New Orleans

    Arb Opportunities

    0

    None detected

    All Markets

    19 markets · Showing 19
    #
    1
    Washington DC📈 Trending
    100¢100¢100¢
    $25.7K+$14.5K 24h
    +2¢
    2
    New York City📈 Trending
    100¢100¢100¢
    $9.5K+$3.1K 24h
    +4¢
    3
    Boston📈 Trending
    100¢100¢100¢
    $6.4K+$3.0K 24h
    +1¢
    4100¢100¢
    $66.8K+$64.6K 24h
    +20¢
    5100¢100¢
    $6.9K+$3.3K 24h
    +6¢
    6
    Philadelphia📈 Trending
    100¢100¢
    $6.9K+$3.3K 24h
    +6¢
    7
    Chicago📈 Trending
    100¢100¢
    $7.3K+$2.9K 24h
    8
    Oklahoma City📈 Trending
    100¢100¢
    $4.9K+$1.4K 24h
    +6¢
    9
    Dallas📈 Trending
    $9.4K+$3.8K 24h
    -5¢
    10
    Denver📈 Trending
    $7.8K+$3.5K 24h
    -26¢
    11
    $7.3K+$1.8K 24h
    -21¢
    12
    Phoenix📈 Trending
    $27.1K+$6.0K 24h
    -25¢
    13
    San Antonio📈 Trending
    $3.5K+$2.3K 24h
    -12¢
    14
    Seattle📈 Trending
    $9.7K+$2.2K 24h
    -4¢
    15
    Austin📈 Trending
    $4.3K+$2.2K 24h
    -2¢
    16
    New Orleans📈 Trending
    $8.1K+$2.1K 24h
    -44¢
    17
    $22.3K+$1.8K 24h
    -1¢
    18
    Houston📈 Trending
    $6.8K+$377 24h
    -14¢
    19
    $588+$269 24h
    -44¢

    Implied Probability

    Consensus across platforms
    1Washington DC
    100%
    100¢+2¢
    2New York City
    100%
    100¢+4¢
    3Boston
    100%
    100¢+1¢
    4Dallas
    -5¢
    5Denver
    -26¢
    6San Francisco
    -21¢

    Event Info

    Resolution Date

    Resolved

    Category
    Culture
    Markets
    19
    Platforms
    2
    Total Volume
    $241.2K

    Whale Activity

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