TRADING OPEN

    VA-04 House Election Margin of Victory

    Resolves Nov 3, 2026
    Total Volume

    $12.5K

    +$1.4K (24h)

    Active Markets

    10

    Across 1 platform

    Frontrunner

    43¢

    Democrat 45%+

    Biggest Mover 24h

    -16¢

    Democrat 15-20%

    Arb Opportunities

    0

    None detected

    All Markets

    10 markets
    #
    1
    Democrat 45%+
    		43¢43¢
    $2.9K+$350 24h
    		-9¢—
    2
    Democrat 40-45%
    		32¢32¢
    $1.8K+$147 24h
    		-1¢—
    3
    Democrat 30-35%
    		16¢16¢
    $766+$116 24h
    		-5¢—
    4
    Democrat 35-40%
    		13¢13¢
    $1.2K+$234 24h
    		-3¢—
    5
    Democrat 25-30%
    		5¢5¢
    $821+$93 24h
    		-8¢—
    6
    Democrat 20-25%
    		5¢5¢
    $642+$110 24h
    		-12¢—
    7
    Democrat 5-15%
    		4¢4¢
    $2.0K+$73 24h
    		+1¢—
    8
    Republican Wins
    		3¢3¢
    $1.4K+$65 24h
    		——
    9
    Democrat 15-20%
    		1¢1¢
    $680+$178 24h
    		-16¢—
    10
    Democrat 0-5%
    		0¢0¢
    $360+$73 24h
    		——

    Implied Probability

    Consensus across platforms
    1Democrat 45%+
    43%
    43¢-9¢
    2Democrat 40-45%
    32%
    32¢-1¢
    3Democrat 30-35%
    16%
    16¢-5¢
    4Democrat 35-40%
    13%
    13¢-3¢
    5Democrat 25-30%
    5¢-8¢
    6Democrat 20-25%
    5¢-12¢
    7Democrat 5-15%
    4¢+1¢
    8Republican Wins
    3¢—
    9Democrat 15-20%
    1¢-16¢
    10Democrat 0-5%
    0¢—

    Event Info

    Resolution Date

    ~Nov 3, 2026

    ~14 days remaining
    Category
    Politics
    Markets
    10
    Platforms
    1
    Total Volume
    $12.5K

    Whale Activity

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