Iran

    US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?

    2% chance

    Yes2%kalshiYes3¢4¢ after fees
    No98%kalshiNo97¢98¢ after fees
    Resolves
    Jan 1, 2027
    Volume
    $1.8M
    24h
    $343
    Liquidity
    $31.7K
    kalshiPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US2 venues · 1 market

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    Signals

    Quiet market: no big moves or venue gaps in the last 24 hours.

    Every venue’s price

    2 venues
    ChanceBest
    Yes2%—kalshi3¢4¢ after fees
    No98%—kalshi97¢98¢ after fees

    Each share pays $1 if it’s right. Green marks the cheapest venue after fees; every price opens that venue’s market.

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    In the news

    How each venue settles it

    kalshiKalshi

    If the United States recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

    Full rules on Kalshi ↗
    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USPolymarket (global)

    This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in…

    Full rules on Polymarket (global) ↗

    About this market

    This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran. A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

    Category
    Politics
    Resolves
    Fri, January 1, 2027
    kalshiPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USCompared across 2 venues

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