Weather

    October 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

    >1.49ºC leads by 86 pts

    1. >1.49ºC#190%
    2. 1.45–1.49ºC#24%
    3. 1.40–1.44ºC#33%
    #4 1.35–1.39ºC1%#5 <1.30ºC1%+1 more
    Resolves
    Dec 1, 2026
    Volume
    $18.7K
    24h
    $2.4K
    Outcomes
    6
    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US1 venue · 6 markets

    Who’s winning

    • >1.49ºC90%
    • 1.45–1.49ºC4%
    • 1.40–1.44ºC3%
    • 1.35–1.39ºC1%
    • <1.30ºC1%
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    Signals

    2 signals
    1. >1.49ºC24h
      ▼ 9¢ in 24hPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US
    2. 1.45–1.49ºC24h
      ▼ 3¢ in 24hPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US

    Every outcome, every venue

    1 venue
    ChanceBest
    >1.49ºC$10.7K vol90%▼ 9Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US99¢99¢ after fees
    1.45–1.49ºC$745 vol4%▼ 3Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US7¢7¢ after fees
    1.40–1.44ºC$1.4K vol3%▲ 2Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US5¢5¢ after fees
    1.35–1.39ºC$1.1K vol1%—Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US1¢1¢ after fees
    <1.30ºC$3.4K vol1%—Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US1¢1¢ after fees
    1.30–1.34ºC$1.4K vol1%▼ 1Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US1¢1¢ after fees

    Yes pays $1 if it’s right. Chance is the venues’ consensus; green marks the cheapest venue after fees, and every price opens that venue’s market.

    Smart money

    Biggest trades

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    In the news

    About this market

    Category
    Culture
    Resolves
    Tue, December 1, 2026
    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USCompared across 1 venue

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