Nigerian Senate Election Winner

    APC leads by 66 pts · 3 candidates at 5%+

    1. APC#181%
    2. PDP#215%
    3. ADC#36%
    Resolves
    Jan 16, 2027
    Volume
    $14.8K
    24h
    $0
    Liquidity
    $36.6K
    Candidates
    7
    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USkalshi2 venues · 7 markets

    Who’s winning

    • APC81%
    • PDP15%
    • ADC6%
    • NDC3%
    • Labour2%
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    Signals

    3 signals
    1. ADC24h
      ▼ 6¢ in 24hPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US
    2. NDC24h
      ▼ 6¢ in 24hPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US
    3. APC24h
      ▼ 3¢ in 24hPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USkalshi

    Every candidate, every venue

    2 venues
    ChanceBest
    APC$8.5K vol81%▼ 3kalshi84¢85¢ after fees
    PDP$4.3K vol15%▼ 3kalshi18¢20¢ after fees
    ADC$820 vol6%▼ 6Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US12¢no fee
    NDC$418 vol3%▼ 6Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US4¢no fee
    Labour$3 vol2%▼ 2kalshi4¢5¢ after fees
    NNPP$343 vol<1%—Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US1¢no fee
    LP$389 vol<1%——

    Yes pays $1 if it’s right. Chance is the venues’ consensus; green marks the cheapest venue after fees, and every price opens that venue’s market.

    Smart money

    Biggest trades

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    In the news

    How each venue settles it

    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USPolymarket (global)

    National Assembly elections are scheduled to be held in Nigeria on January 16, 2027. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Senate of Nigeria's National Assembly in this election. If the party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Senate is not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the ev…

    Full rules on Polymarket (global) ↗
    kalshiKalshi

    If the winner of the next Nigerian Senate election is APC, then the market resolves to Yes.

    Full rules on Kalshi ↗

    About this market

    National Assembly elections are scheduled to be held in Nigeria on January 16, 2027. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Senate of Nigeria's National Assembly in this election. If the party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Senate is not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose abbreviation as listed in the market options appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates elected under the specified party in the Senate. Seats will not be combined between parties on the basis of endorsements, alliances, coalitions, or other forms of political cooperation. Any changes in party affiliation or seat holdings after the election, including defections, floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered. For the purposes of this market, the results of this election are those declared by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) at the conclusion of the election, including the results of any supplementary or rerun polls conducted to complete the declaration of results for constituencies initially declared inconclusive. Judicial outcomes after the declaration of results, including any election petition tribunal or appellate ruling that nullifies a result, substitutes a declared winner, or orders a fresh election, will not be considered. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Nigerian government sources, including the Independent National Electoral Commission (https://www.inecnigeria.org/).

    Category
    Politics
    Resolves
    Sat, January 16, 2027
    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USkalshiCompared across 2 venues

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