Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?

    Yair Lapid leads by 7 pts · 4 candidates at 5%+

    1. Yair Lapid#137%
    2. No Next Minister by Feb 28#230%
    3. Chili Tropper#310%
    Resolves
    Feb 28, 2027
    Volume
    $331.8K
    24h
    $3.0K
    Liquidity
    $150.8K
    Candidates
    18
    kalshiPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US2 venues · 18 markets

    Who’s winning

    • Yair Lapid37%
    • No Next Minister by Feb 2830%
    • Chili Tropper10%
    • Benjamin Netanyahu5%
    • Naftali Bennett4%
    Polymarket USPolymarket USCFTC-regulated

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    Signals

    4 signals
    1. Chili Tropper24h
      ▼ 9¢ in 24h
    2. Gadi Eisenkot24h
      ▼ 4¢ in 24h
    3. Gideon Sa'ar24h
      ▼ 3¢ in 24hPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US
    4. Naftali Bennett24h
      4¢ apart across venuesPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USkalshi

    Every candidate, every venue

    2 venues
    ChanceBest
    Yair Lapid$42.5K vol37%▼ 1kalshi40¢42¢ after fees
    No Next Minister by Feb 28$82.7K vol30%▲ 1Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US31¢32¢ after fees
    Chili Tropper$3.7K vol10%▼ 9kalshi19¢21¢ after fees
    Benjamin Netanyahu$67.9K vol5%▼ 1kalshi8¢9¢ after fees
    Naftali Bennett$22.0K vol · 4¢ apart4%—kalshi8¢9¢ after fees
    Gadi Eisenkot$6.1K vol4%▼ 4kalshi7¢8¢ after fees
    Gideon Sa'ar$17.7K vol3%▼ 3kalshi6¢7¢ after fees
    Gadi Eizenkot$28.3K vol3%▼ 2Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US6¢6¢ after fees
    Avigdor Lieberman$10.5K vol3%▼ 2kalshi6¢7¢ after fees
    Einat Wilf$7.1K vol2%▼ 2kalshi4¢5¢ after fees

    Yes pays $1 if it’s right. Chance is the venues’ consensus; green marks the cheapest venue after fees, and every price opens that venue’s market.

    Where venues disagree

    Yes price
    • Naftali Bennett4¢buy kalshi
    • Yair Lapid3¢buy kalshi
    • Benjamin Netanyahu3¢buy kalshi
    • Polymarket (global)
    • Kalshi
    • Consensus

    Same candidate, different price: buy where it’s cheapest.

    Smart money

    Biggest trades

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    In the news

    How each venue settles it

    kalshiKalshi

    If Yair Lapid formally takes office as Minister of Foreign Affairs as a result of the government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election before Oct 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

    Full rules on Kalshi ↗
    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USPolymarket (global)

    This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections. To count for resolution, the individual’s ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence in that government or a subsequent vote approving the individual’s appointment to that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister…

    Full rules on Polymarket (global) ↗

    About this market

    This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections. To count for resolution, the individual’s ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence in that government or a subsequent vote approving the individual’s appointment to that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of Foreign Affairs will not count toward the resolution of this market. Once a qualifying individual assumes office, subsequent replacements will not affect resolution. The individual must be appointed as “Minister of Foreign Affairs” or be appointed to the ministerial position confirmed to be its successor position, retaining its primary responsibilities, by a consensus of credible reporting. Positions that assume only secondary responsibilities will not qualify as a successor. If the primary portfolio responsibilities previously assigned to Minister of Foreign Affairs are attributable to multiple successor positions, this market will resolve to the individual appointed to one of the successor positions whose full name comes first in alphabetical order. If no such Minister of Foreign Affairs assumes office by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Minister by Feb 28”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

    Category
    Politics
    Resolves
    Sun, February 28, 2027
    kalshiPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USCompared across 2 venues

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