TRADING OPEN

    MS-04 House Election Margin of Victory (First Round)

    Resolves Nov 3, 2026
    Total Volume

    $13.9K

    +$497 (24h)

    Active Markets

    10

    Across 1 platform

    Frontrunner

    34¢

    Republican 30-35%

    Biggest Mover 24h

    +17¢

    Republican 30-35%

    Arb Opportunities

    0

    None detected

    All Markets

    10 markets
    #
    134¢34¢
    $3.7K+$497 24h
    +17¢—
    223¢23¢
    $2.8K
    ——
    323¢23¢
    $3.0K
    ——
    412¢12¢
    $662
    -5¢—
    54¢4¢
    $577
    -1¢—
    64¢4¢
    $728
    -7¢—
    73¢3¢
    $662
    -2¢—
    82¢2¢
    $512
    ——
    91¢1¢
    $806
    ——
    100¢0¢
    $466
    ——

    Implied Probability

    Consensus across platforms
    1Republican 30-35%
    34%
    34¢+17¢
    2Republican 35-40%
    23%
    23¢—
    3Republican 40-45%
    23%
    23¢—
    4Republican 45-50%
    12%
    12¢-5¢
    5Republican 10-20%
    4¢-1¢
    6Republican 25-30%
    4¢-7¢
    7Republican 50%+
    3¢-2¢
    8Republican 0-10%
    2¢—
    9Republican 20-25%
    1¢—
    10Democrat Wins
    0¢—

    Event Info

    Resolution Date

    ~Nov 3, 2026

    ~14 days remaining
    Category
    Politics
    Markets
    10
    Platforms
    1
    Total Volume
    $13.9K

    Whale Activity

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