Trump

    Marco Rubio announces departure as Secretary of State?

    Before Jan 1, 2029 leads by 18 pts · 8 candidates at 5%+

    1. Before Jan 1, 2029#190%
    2. Before Jul 1, 2028#272%
    3. Before Jan 1, 2028#357%
    #4 Before Oct 1, 202756%#5 Before Jul 1, 202748%+4 more
    Resolves
    Dec 31, 2028
    Volume
    $165.1K
    24h
    $13.5K
    Candidates
    9
    kalshiPolymarket US2 venues · 10 markets

    Who’s winning

    • Before Jan 1, 202990%
    • Before Jul 1, 202872%
    • Before Jan 1, 202857%
    • Before Oct 1, 202756%
    • Before Jul 1, 202748%
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    Signals

    4 signals
    1. Before Jan 1, 202824h
      ▼ 15¢ in 24hkalshi
    2. Before Jul 1, 202824h
      ▼ 10¢ in 24hkalshi
    3. Before Oct 1, 202724h
      ▼ 8¢ in 24hkalshi
    4. Before Apr 1, 202724h
      4¢ apart across venueskalshiPolymarket US

    Every candidate, every venue

    2 venues
    ChanceBest
    Before Jan 1, 2029$181 vol90%▼ 4kalshi93¢94¢ after fees
    Before Jul 1, 2028$437 vol72%▼ 10kalshi74¢76¢ after fees
    Before Jan 1, 2028$2.7K vol57%▼ 15kalshi62¢64¢ after fees
    Before Oct 1, 2027$4.2K vol56%▼ 8kalshi59¢61¢ after fees
    Before Jul 1, 2027$20.0K vol48%▼ 4kalshi49¢51¢ after fees
    Before Apr 1, 2027$57.8K vol · 4¢ apart25%▼ 6kalshi26¢28¢ after fees
    Before Jan 1, 2027$79.7K vol9%▼ 5kalshi10¢11¢ after fees
    By November 30, 2026$0 vol6%▼ 5Polymarket US10¢fee unknown
    By November 15, 2026$0 vol4%▼ 2Polymarket US6¢fee unknown

    Yes pays $1 if it’s right. Chance is the venues’ consensus; green marks the cheapest venue after fees, and every price opens that venue’s market.

    Where venues disagree

    Yes price
    • Before Apr 1, 20274¢buy kalshi
    • Kalshi
    • Polymarket US
    • Consensus

    Same candidate, different price: buy where it’s cheapest.

    Smart money

    Biggest trades

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    In the news

    How each venue settles it

    kalshiKalshi

    If Marco Rubio leaves (or announces he will leave) as Secretary of State before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

    Full rules on Kalshi ↗
    Polymarket USPolymarket US

    Marco Rubio Announced Out as Secretary of State?

    Full rules on Polymarket US ↗

    About this market

    Before Jan 2029

    Category
    Politics
    Resolves
    Sun, December 31, 2028
    kalshiPolymarket USCompared across 2 venues

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