TRADING OPEN

    LA mayor margin of victory?

    What will be the margin in the Los Angeles mayoral general election?

    Resolves Nov 3, 2026
    Total Volume

    $24.6K

    +$331 (24h)

    Active Markets

    13

    Across 2 platforms

    Frontrunner

    50¢

    Karen Bass, ≥ 12%

    Biggest Mover 24h

    -48¢

    Karen Bass, ≥ 12%

    Arb Opportunities

    0

    None detected

    All Markets

    13 markets
    #
    1
    Karen Bass, ≥ 12%
    		50¢—50¢
    $0
    		-48¢—
    2
    Nithya Raman, 0-4%
    		25¢25¢51¢
    $7.0K+$44 24h
    		+3¢—
    3
    Karen Bass, 0-4%
    		22¢22¢51¢
    $1.6K+$163 24h
    		-1¢—
    4
    Nithya Raman, 8-12%
    		15¢15¢51¢
    $2.5K+$11 24h
    		-1¢—
    5
    Raman 4-8%
    		13¢13¢51¢
    $3.5K+$11 24h
    		-5¢—
    6
    Nithya Raman, 12-16%
    		11¢11¢51¢
    $1.3K+$11 24h
    		-4¢—
    7
    Karen Bass, 4-8%
    		9¢9¢51¢
    $1.5K+$11 24h
    		-4¢—
    8
    Nithya Raman, ≥ 20%
    		4¢4¢50¢
    $1.7K+$11 24h
    		-6¢—
    9
    Bass 8-12%
    		4¢4¢50¢
    $1.4K+$11 24h
    		-6¢—
    10
    Bass 12-16%
    		3¢3¢—
    $977+$11 24h
    		-5¢—
    11
    Raman 16-20%
    		3¢3¢50¢
    $960+$22 24h
    		-3¢—
    12
    Bass 20+%
    		1¢1¢—
    $907+$11 24h
    		-1¢—
    13
    Bass 16-20%
    		1¢1¢—
    $1.3K+$11 24h
    		——

    Implied Probability

    Consensus across platforms
    1Nithya Raman, 0-4%
    25%
    25¢+3¢
    2Karen Bass, 0-4%
    22%
    22¢-1¢
    3Nithya Raman, 8-12%
    15%
    15¢-1¢
    4Raman 4-8%
    13%
    13¢-5¢
    5Nithya Raman, 12-16%
    11¢-4¢
    6Karen Bass, 4-8%
    9¢-4¢
    7Nithya Raman, ≥ 20%
    4¢-6¢
    8Bass 8-12%
    4¢-6¢
    9Raman 16-20%
    3¢-3¢

    Event Info

    Resolution Date

    ~Nov 3, 2026

    ~14 days remaining
    Category
    Politics
    Markets
    13
    Platforms
    2
    Total Volume
    $24.6K

    Whale Activity

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