Georgia Senate Republican Primary Runoff Margin of Victory

The Georgia Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for June 16, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Georgia Republican Senate Primary runoff election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending). If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Georgia, such as official statewide results published by the Georgia Secretary of State (https://sos.ga.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Resolves Jun 16, 2027

• Collins 5–10%: Yes 16¢ (kalshi)
• Collins 20–25%: Yes 24¢ (kalshi)
• Mike Collins within 15% to 20%: Yes 24¢ (kalshi)
• Collins 10–15%: Yes 14¢ (kalshi)
• Derek Dooley within 0% to 100%: Yes 5¢ (kalshi)
• Mike Collins within 25% to 100%: Yes 26¢ (kalshi)
• Mike Collins within 0% to 5%: Yes 8¢ (kalshi)
• Dooley Wins: Yes 14¢ (polymarket)
• Collins 25%+: Yes 79¢ (polymarket)
• Collins <5%: Yes 38¢ (polymarket)