US Election

    FL-22 House Election Margin of Victory

    Democrat 3-6% leads by 1 pt · 6 candidates at 5%+

    1. Democrat 3-6%#19%
    2. Democrat 6-9%#28%
    3. Republican 6-9%#38%
    #4 Democrat 12%+7%#5 Republican 3-6%7%+4 more
    Resolves
    Jan 14, 2027
    Volume
    $4.5K
    24h
    $0
    Liquidity
    $10.6K
    Candidates
    9
    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USPolymarket US2 venues · 14 markets

    Who’s winning

    • Democrat 3-6%9%
    • Democrat 6-9%8%
    • Republican 6-9%8%
    • Democrat 12%+7%
    • Republican 3-6%7%
    Polymarket USPolymarket USCFTC-regulated

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    Signals

    4 signals
    1. Democrat 6-9%24h
      ▼ 8¢ in 24hPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US
    2. Republican 6-9%24h
      ▼ 7¢ in 24hPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US
    3. Democrat 12%+24h
      ▼ 6¢ in 24hPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USPolymarket US
    4. Democrat 12%+24h
      21¢ apart across venuesPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USPolymarket US

    Every candidate, every venue

    2 venues
    ChanceBest
    Democrat 3-6%$340 vol9%—Polymarket US9¢fee unknown
    Democrat 6-9%$592 vol8%▼ 8Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US17¢17¢ after fees
    Republican 6-9%$310 vol8%▼ 7Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US15¢16¢ after fees
    Democrat 12%+$688 vol · 21¢ apart7%▼ 6Polymarket US23¢fee unknown
    Republican 3-6%$679 vol7%▼ 6Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US13¢13¢ after fees
    Republican 12%+$428 vol5%▼ 5Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US10¢10¢ after fees
    Democrat 0-3%$512 vol2%▼ 1Polymarket US4¢fee unknown
    Republican 0-3%$701 vol1%—Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US1¢1¢ after fees
    Democrat 9-12%$246 vol1%—Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US1¢1¢ after fees

    Yes pays $1 if it’s right. Chance is the venues’ consensus; green marks the cheapest venue after fees, and every price opens that venue’s market.

    Where venues disagree

    Yes price
    • Polymarket (global)
    • Polymarket US
    • Consensus

    Same candidate, different price: buy where it’s cheapest.

    Smart money

    Biggest trades

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    In the news

    How each venue settles it

    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USPolymarket (global)

    The 2026 FL-22 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate…

    Full rules on Polymarket (global) ↗
    Polymarket USPolymarket US

    FL-22 House Election Margin of Victory

    Full rules on Polymarket US ↗

    About this market

    The 2026 FL-22 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 FL-22 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

    Category
    Politics
    Resolves
    Thu, January 14, 2027
    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USPolymarket USCompared across 2 venues

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