Scotus & Courts

    Courts block Trump's $100,000 Truth Social early access plan by...?

    Before Apr 1, 2027 leads by 11 pts · 3 candidates at 5%+

    1. Before Apr 1, 2027#130%
    2. Before Jan 1, 2027#219%
    3. Before Dec 1, 2026#312%
    Resolves
    Apr 1, 2027
    Volume
    $45.5K
    24h
    $284
    Liquidity
    $14.0K
    Candidates
    3
    kalshiPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US2 venues · 4 markets

    Who’s winning

    • Before Apr 1, 202730%
    • Before Jan 1, 202719%
    • Before Dec 1, 202612%
    Polymarket USPolymarket USCFTC-regulated

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    Signals

    3 signals
    1. Before Jan 1, 202724h
      ▼ 7¢ in 24hPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USkalshi
    2. Before Apr 1, 202724h
      ▼ 3¢ in 24hkalshi
    3. Before Jan 1, 202724h
      9¢ apart across venuesPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USkalshi

    Every candidate, every venue

    2 venues
    ChanceBest
    Before Apr 1, 2027$622 vol30%▼ 3kalshi33¢35¢ after fees
    Before Jan 1, 2027$38.8K vol · 9¢ apart19%▼ 7kalshi22¢24¢ after fees
    Before Dec 1, 2026$3.0K vol12%▲ 1kalshi14¢15¢ after fees

    Yes pays $1 if it’s right. Chance is the venues’ consensus; green marks the cheapest venue after fees, and every price opens that venue’s market.

    Where venues disagree

    Yes price
    • Before Jan 1, 20279¢buy kalshi
    • Polymarket (global)
    • Kalshi
    • Consensus

    Same candidate, different price: buy where it’s cheapest.

    Smart money

    Biggest trades

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    In the news

    How each venue settles it

    kalshiKalshi

    If any federal or state court issues a preliminary or permanent injunction prohibiting Trump Media & Technology Group from providing paying customers faster access to Donald Trump's Truth Social posts than is available to the general public in a case concerning paid early access to Donald Trump's Truth Social posts before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

    Full rules on Kalshi ↗
    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USPolymarket (global)

    This market will resolve to "Yes" if, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, a court issues any order — including a temporary restraining order, preliminary or permanent injunction, or other relief — that has the effect of prohibiting or suspending the sale of paid early access to Donald Trump's Truth Social posts. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying order includes one tha…

    Full rules on Polymarket (global) ↗

    About this market

    This market will resolve to "Yes" if, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, a court issues any order — including a temporary restraining order, preliminary or permanent injunction, or other relief — that has the effect of prohibiting or suspending the sale of paid early access to Donald Trump's Truth Social posts. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying order includes one that requires official government information to be released to the public simultaneously with, or before, its provision to paying subscribers, if such an order has the effect of eliminating the paid early-access advantage. A qualifying order issued within the market timeframe will resolve this market "Yes" regardless of whether it is later vacated, reversed, stayed, or superseded, and regardless of its stated duration. The primary resolution sources will be official court records and filings; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

    Category
    Politics
    Resolves
    Thu, April 1, 2027
    kalshiPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USCompared across 2 venues

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