US Election

    CA-48 House Election Margin of Victory

    Democrat 18-21% leads by 33 pts · 6 candidates at 5%+

    1. Democrat 18-21%#144%
    2. Democrat 9-12%#211%
    3. Democrat 6-9%#38%
    #4 Democrat 0-3%7%#5 Republican 3%+7%+4 more
    Resolves
    Jan 14, 2027
    Volume
    $1.6K
    24h
    $58
    Liquidity
    $3.9K
    Candidates
    9
    Polymarket USPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US2 venues · 9 markets

    Who’s winning

    • Democrat 18-21%44%
    • Democrat 9-12%11%
    • Democrat 6-9%8%
    • Democrat 0-3%7%
    • Republican 3%+7%
    Polymarket USPolymarket USCFTC-regulated

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    Signals

    5 signals
    1. Republican 3%+24h
      ▼ 19¢ in 24hPolymarket USPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US
    2. Democrat 6-9%24h
      ▼ 16¢ in 24hPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USPolymarket US
    3. Democrat 0-3%24h
      ▼ 15¢ in 24hPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USPolymarket US
    4. Democrat 18-21%24h
      83¢ apart across venuesPolymarket USPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the US
    5. Democrat 0-3%24h
      11¢ apart across venuesPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USPolymarket US

    Every candidate, every venue

    2 venues
    ChanceBest
    Democrat 18-21%$492 vol · 83¢ apart44%▼ 4Polymarket US4¢fee unknown
    Democrat 9-12%$180 vol · 6¢ apart11%▲ 1Polymarket US16¢fee unknown
    Democrat 6-9%$30 vol · 10¢ apart8%▼ 16Polymarket US19¢fee unknown
    Democrat 0-3%$80 vol · 11¢ apart7%▼ 15Polymarket US19¢fee unknown
    Republican 3%+$80 vol · 8¢ apart7%▼ 19Polymarket US4¢fee unknown
    Republican 0-3%$80 vol · 10¢ apart6%▼ 15Polymarket US17¢fee unknown
    Democrat 3-6%$390 vol5%▼ 4Polymarket US8¢fee unknown
    Democrat 12-15%$242 vol3%▼ 1Polymarket US4¢fee unknown
    Democrat 15-18%$40 vol3%▼ 1Polymarket US4¢fee unknown

    Yes pays $1 if it’s right. Chance is the venues’ consensus; green marks the cheapest venue after fees, and every price opens that venue’s market.

    Where venues disagree

    Yes price
    • Polymarket US
    • Polymarket (global)
    • Consensus

    Same candidate, different price: buy where it’s cheapest.

    Smart money

    Biggest trades

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    In the news

    How each venue settles it

    Polymarket USPolymarket US

    CA-48 House Election Margin of Victory

    Full rules on Polymarket US ↗
    Polymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USPolymarket (global)

    The 2026 CA-48 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate…

    Full rules on Polymarket (global) ↗

    About this market

    The 2026 CA-48 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-48 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

    Category
    Politics
    Resolves
    Thu, January 14, 2027
    Polymarket USPolymarket (global): price for reference, not tradable in the USCompared across 2 venues

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